Pakistan face Sri Lanka in Pallekele in a T20 World Cup group match. Sri Lanka are already eliminated, while Pakistan retain a conditional chance to reach the semi-finals. Their qualification depends on a large-margin win and other results, including England’s earlier victory over New Zealand. Pakistan must win by around 64 runs or chase any target in about 13.1 overs to stay alive. New Zealand currently hold a net run rate of 1.390 compared to Pakistan’s -0.461. Pakistan have never achieved such a margin against a Full Member at a T20 World Cup when batting first, and only once when chasing, in 2009. The slower Sri Lankan surfaces compared to Indian pitches make that task harder. Sri Lanka have lost their last three matches and were the first team eliminated from the Super Eight. They will aim to finish with a strong performance despite having no qualification stakes. The match also highlights individual focus on Dunith Wellalage and Salman Agha.
Toss & Conditions
The surfaces in Sri Lanka are slower than those in India, which complicates high-scoring chases or large-margin wins.
Head-to-Head
In the last three meetings, Pakistan won twice and Sri Lanka won once. The most recent match on January 11, 2026, was won by Sri Lanka by 14 runs.
Pakistan
Pakistan have one win and two losses in their last three matches, with a current record of 0W-1L and a net run rate of -0.461.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka have lost their last three matches, with a current record of 0W-2L and a net run rate of -2.8.
Playing XI
Key Stats
Prediction
Model projections give Pakistan a 68% win probability against Sri Lanka’s 32%. Bookmakers rate Pakistan at 60% with odds of 1.621. Pakistan hold an Elo advantage of 83 points and a net run rate 1.04 higher than Sri Lanka. Pakistan’s recent home and head-to-head record, along with Sri Lanka’s three straight losses, strengthen the model’s preference for Pakistan.

