Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Welsh Fire W lead the last three meetings 2-1. In the most recent meeting last season, Welsh Fire W won and did it with a comfortable margin. The defining feature was Phoenix being held to 114/9 while Fire posted 150/3, leaving Phoenix too much to chase. Across the last three games, the matchup has swung, but Fire have had the edge more often than not.

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 114/9

WFWelsh Fire W 150/3

2025-08-22 · WF-W won by 36 runs

WFWelsh Fire W 112/8

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 121/7

2024-08-10 · BP-W won by 9 runs

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 134/4

WFWelsh Fire W 137/7

2023-08-10 · WF-W won by 3 runs

Birmingham Phoenix W

Birmingham Phoenix W are 8th in the regular season with 2 points and a 0W-2L record. Their form has been a slide, with back-to-back defeats to start the campaign. The most telling result was being bowled out for 64/10 and losing by 9 wickets with 69 balls remaining, a game that exposed how quickly their innings can unravel.

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 116/5

SBSouthern Brave W 140/3

2026-07-30 · SB-W won by 24 runs

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 64/10

TRTrent Rockets W 68/1

2026-07-24 · TR-W won by 9 wickets (with 69 balls remaining)

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 123/6

TRTrent Rockets W 126/7

2025-08-27 · TR-W won by 3 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

Welsh Fire W

Welsh Fire W are 5th in the regular season with 4 points and a 1W-2L record. Their last three games have been volatile, mixing a heavy win with two defeats. The clearest signal of their ceiling was the 60-run win over MI London W, where they made 177/4 and bowled the opposition out for 117/10.

WFWelsh Fire W 129/3

TRTrent Rockets W 132/2

2026-07-29 · TR-W won by 8 wickets (with 17 balls remaining)

WFWelsh Fire W 177/4

MIMI London W 117/10

2026-07-25 · WF-W won by 60 runs

WFWelsh Fire W 118/8

SBSouthern Brave W 126/7

2026-07-22 · SB-W won by 8 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

All four models favour Welsh Fire W, with the average projection at 64% for Fire. Bookmakers diverge from the models, showing near parity at BP-W 51% (1.85) vs WF-W 49% (1.90). Key stats favour Welsh Fire W 6-0, driven by the gap in run-rate and the edge in recent indicators. If Phoenix can’t avoid another batting collapse, Fire’s overall profile points to them controlling the game.

Capsey sparks the chase

Alice Capsey supplied the momentum shift that Welsh Fire couldn’t claw back. After Georgia Voll’s 78 had kept Fire in control for long stretches, Capsey’s counterpunch alongside Ellyse Perry dragged Birmingham Phoenix into the driving seat, and they eventually crossed the line by 7 wickets with one ball remaining in a chase that never quite allowed either side to relax.

Middle overs decide it

The match tilted in the middle phase, where Phoenix turned a cautious start into a commanding platform. From 25/1 in the powerplay, they powered to 95/1 through the middle overs, scoring at 7.9 an over and effectively cancelling out Fire’s steadier 86/2 mid-innings passage. That one sustained burst meant Phoenix could absorb a quieter finish (25/1 at 6.6) and still stay ahead of the rate when the pressure peaked in the final set.

Perry and Capsey seal it

Perry’s 68 off 46 was the chase’s stabiliser, allowing Capsey to attack without Phoenix losing shape. Their best stand of 84 drained Fire’s options and turned a tricky target into a manageable equation. Voll remained the standout overall—her 78 off 55, plus a tidy 1/9, kept Fire in the contest—but Phoenix’s two match-winners delivered in the moments that mattered most.

Fire’s profile meets reality

Pre-match numbers leaned heavily towards Fire, largely on run-rate and recent indicators, and Voll’s innings showed why: Fire were never far from a match-winning total. But the game exposed the risk in assuming Phoenix would stall with the bat. On a night when their top order didn’t collapse, Phoenix’s chase was built on control rather than chaos, and Fire’s bowlers couldn’t force the extra wickets that would have made 145 feel out of reach.