Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Hampshire have won the last three meetings against Sussex. In the most recent clash, Hampshire defended their total successfully as Sussex were bowled out for 144, leaving Hampshire in control of the chase-defence dynamic. That game was defined by Sussex losing all 10 wickets while trying to reach the target. The broader pattern is one-way: Hampshire are 3-for-3 in the last three head-to-heads.

HAHampshire 173/6

SUSussex 144/10

2026-06-02 · HAM won by 29 runs

HAHampshire 171/4

SUSussex 167/7

2025-07-13 · HAM won by 6 wickets (with 16 balls remaining)

SUSussex 134/10

HAHampshire 196/8

2025-07-05 · HAM won by 62 runs

Sussex

Sussex are 16th in the T20B regular season with 12 points and a 3W–8L record. Their last three results swing from a 100-run loss to Essex to an 8-wicket defeat to Surrey, before responding with an 18-run win over Middlesex. The Middlesex win is their clearest recent statement after two heavy setbacks.

SUSussex 213/3

MIMiddlesex 195/9

2026-07-10 · SUS won by 18 runs

SUSussex 176/7

SUSurrey 177/2

2026-07-08 · SUR won by 8 wickets (with 16 balls remaining)

SUSussex 104/10

ESEssex 204/6

2026-07-03 · ESS won by 100 runs

Hampshire

Hampshire are 5th in the T20B regular season with 28 points and a 7W–4L record. Their last three matches show a wobble: they followed a 19-run win over Kent with consecutive losses to Middlesex and Essex. The most telling result is being bowled out for 130 in the defeat to Essex, which underlined a batting collapse in their latest outing.

HAHampshire 130/10

ESEssex 134/3

2026-07-10 · ESS won by 7 wickets (with 24 balls remaining)

HAHampshire 159/4

MIMiddlesex 162/5

2026-07-08 · MID won by 5 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

HAHampshire 190/3

KEKent 171/10

2026-07-05 · HAM won by 19 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Hampshire, with the model average at HAM 68% (range 59–73%). Bookmakers agree, pricing Sussex at 33% (2.85) vs Hampshire at 67% (1.42). Key stats lean Hampshire 5–2, driven by their stronger season position and a clean 3–0 edge in the last three head-to-heads. The swing factor is whether Sussex can build on their last win or whether Hampshire extend their recent dominance in this matchup.

Cartwright flips the chase

Hilton Cartwright’s 31-ball blitz changed the mood of the night, turning Hampshire’s early stumbles into a chase that never quite slipped away. Sussex had posted 186/5, and when Hampshire were 47/2 in the powerplay the hosts had a foothold. But Cartwright’s clean hitting, followed by a tense finish, carried Hampshire to 190/6 with one ball remaining for a four-wicket win.

Middle overs decide it

The game was effectively won in the middle phase, where Hampshire went from behind the rate to ahead of the match. Sussex’s innings slowed from 69/1 in the powerplay to 80/3 in the middle overs, leaving them reliant on a late push. Hampshire did the opposite: after a quiet start (47/2), they hammered 106/3 through the middle, the decisive swing that meant the required rate stayed manageable even when wickets fell late.

Cartwright leads, Carson bites back

Cartwright was the difference-maker, pairing with Player 6140 in a match-shaping 112-run stand that broke Sussex’s grip. Ben Mayes’ 55 off 36 provided the bridge that kept the chase on track when the finish got messy. For Sussex, Hughes’ 55 off 32 set the platform, while Carson’s 3/43 in 3.5 overs injected genuine late pressure, briefly threatening to steal a game Hampshire had largely wrestled their way into winning.

Pre-match edge, on-field proof

The expectation was that Hampshire’s stronger baseline would tell, and it did in the area that usually travels: controlling the central overs. Sussex’s best work came early through Daniel Hughes’ intent, but Hampshire’s deeper batting and comfort in this matchup showed once the ball softened. Even when Sussex found a late window—Jack Carson striking in the 20th over—the chase had already been set up by Hampshire’s surge between overs 7 and 15.