Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Yorkshire lead the last three meetings 2-1. In the most recent clash, Yorkshire won by 7 wickets with 21 balls remaining after chasing down Nottinghamshire’s 167/7. That result was defined by how comfortably Yorkshire finished the chase with time to spare. Across the last three games, the edge has swung, with Nottinghamshire also recording a 28-run win in the other fixture at Yorkshire.

NONottinghamshire 167/7

YOYorkshire 169/3

2026-05-22 · YOR won by 7 wickets (with 21 balls remaining)

NONottinghamshire 166/9

YOYorkshire 175/8

2025-06-11 · YOR won by 9 runs

YOYorkshire 181/6

NONottinghamshire 209/9

2024-07-19 · NOT won by 28 runs

Yorkshire

Yorkshire are 6th in the T20B Regular Season with 26 points and a 6W-4L record. Their last three results show two wins followed by a setback, with the most recent match ending in a 22-run defeat to Lancashire. The clearest recent positive is a 41-run win over Leicestershire.

YOYorkshire 194/8

LALancashire 216/6

2026-07-10 · LAN won by 22 runs

YOYorkshire 207/4

LELeicestershire 166/9

2026-07-05 · YOR won by 41 runs

YOYorkshire 208/5

DUDurham 205/9

2026-07-03 · YOR won by 5 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire are 2nd in the T20B Regular Season with 32 points and an 8W-3L record. They are on a three-match winning streak, and the margins have been tight, including a 1-run win over Lancashire and a 2-run win over Durham. Their latest win was a 6-wicket chase against Leicestershire with 10 balls remaining.

NONottinghamshire 149/4

LELeicestershire 143/7

2026-07-10 · NOT won by 6 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

NONottinghamshire 166/8

DUDurham 164/6

2026-07-05 · NOT won by 2 runs

NONottinghamshire 181/6

LALancashire 180/7

2026-07-03 · NOT won by 1 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

Models are split, leaning Nottinghamshire at 54% on average, while the ML model favours Yorkshire at 55%. Bookmakers diverge from the model average, pricing Yorkshire at 54% (1.75) vs Nottinghamshire at 46% (2.05). Key stats narrowly favour Yorkshire 4-3, driven by the NRR edge and a 2-1 advantage in the last three head-to-heads. Nottinghamshire’s higher points total and Elo edge set up the main tension against Yorkshire’s recent H2H and efficiency indicators.

Lyth and Luxton set it up

Adam Lyth’s early assault gave Yorkshire the head start they needed, and even a brutal mid-innings wobble couldn’t undo it as they beat Nottinghamshire by 18 runs. Lyth and William Luxton flew out of the blocks, turning the first six overs into a statement of intent, and that cushion proved decisive when wickets later tumbled in clusters and the chase briefly threatened to get away from Yorkshire.

Powerplay cushion proves decisive

The match was effectively shaped in the first six overs of each innings. Yorkshire’s 83/0 in the powerplay (RR 13.5) meant they could absorb the collapse that followed, when they managed only 65/6 through the middle and Patterson-White’s spell squeezed the life out of the innings. Nottinghamshire, by contrast, were 53/3 after six (RR 8.8), and that early damage left them needing a near-perfect back half. Even with 93/4 in the middle overs, the required rate kept climbing, and Yorkshire’s death-overs control (29/3) shut the door.

Patterson-White shines, Tye closes

Lyth’s 52 off 27 and Luxton’s 39 off 23 powered the 89-run opening stand that defined the game’s shape. Patterson-White was the standout bowler, conceding just 13 in four overs while taking three wickets to trigger Yorkshire’s mid-overs slump. But Andrew Tye’s 3 for 18, including key strikes as the chase entered the final stretch, ensured Nottinghamshire’s best partnership—56 between Pennington and Benny Howell—never became a match-turning stand.

Pre-match trends flip at the start

Nottinghamshire arrived with the momentum: three straight wins and a strong away run, plus an Elo edge that suggested they’d handle pressure moments better. Instead, Yorkshire’s home comfort showed up immediately in the batting intent, and Nottinghamshire’s usually tidy new-ball work couldn’t contain Lyth’s pace. The other pre-game tell that mattered was Yorkshire’s efficiency edge: once they banked that powerplay surge, they didn’t need perfection—just enough composure to outlast Nottinghamshire’s stronger middle-overs chase.