Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Durham W lead the last three head-to-heads 2–1. In the most recent meeting, Hampshire W chased down the target with 19 balls remaining and won by 8 wickets, keeping Durham to 128/7 before finishing at 131/2. That game was defined by Hampshire’s control of the chase and the wickets they kept in hand. Across the last three meetings, results have swung, with Durham winning the two before Hampshire’s latest response.

HAHampshire W 131/2

DUDurham W 128/7

2026-06-28 · HAM-W won by 8 wickets (with 19 balls remaining)

DUDurham W 178/5

HAHampshire W 146/8

2026-05-24 · DUR-W won by 32 runs

DUDurham W 104/5

HAHampshire W 103/7

2025-07-11 · DUR-W won by 5 wickets (with 28 balls remaining)

Hampshire W

Hampshire W are 8–2 in the tournament with a +1.049 NRR. Their last three matches show two wins, including a chase where they got home with 6 balls remaining, before a 6-wicket defeat with 14 balls remaining in their latest outing. The pattern is a side still winning more than they lose, but coming off a result where they couldn’t close out a defend.

HAHampshire W 132/8

SUSurrey W 136/4

2026-07-12 · SUR-W won by 6 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

HAHampshire W 167/6

WAWarwickshire W 166/5

2026-07-10 · HAM-W won by 4 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

HAHampshire W 151/8

TBThe Blaze W 128/8

2026-07-08 · HAM-Women won by 23 runs

Durham W

Durham W are 7–4 with a +0.415 NRR. They have lost two of their last three, including a 12-run defeat after conceding 162/4 while making 150/6 in reply. Their one win in that stretch was a chase finished with 4 balls remaining, but recent results show tighter margins and less control late in games.

DUDurham W 132/6

LALancashire W 135/6

2026-07-12 · LAN-W won by 4 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

DUDurham W 150/6

ESEssex W 162/4

2026-07-10 · ESS-W won by 12 runs

DUDurham W 148/5

TBThe Blaze W 147/9

2026-07-05 · DUR-W won by 5 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

All four models favour Hampshire W, with the model average at 62% for HAM-W. Bookmakers align with that lean, pricing HAM-W at 54% (1.75) vs DUR-W at 46% (2.05). Key stats narrowly favour Hampshire 4–3 overall, driven by their stronger NRR and better last-three win rate. Durham’s edge in the last three head-to-heads is the main counterweight to Hampshire’s broader season profile.

Turner punctures Hampshire’s surge

Sophia Turner turned Hampshire’s bright start into a scramble, and Durham kept their nerve to win by 4 wickets with 4 balls remaining. Hampshire flew to 50/2 in the powerplay, but Turner’s control through the middle overs ensured the innings never regained momentum. Durham’s chase had its own stutter after a calm opening, yet a decisive partnership and a composed finish carried them past 129.

Middle overs squeeze decides it

The game swung in the middle phase where Hampshire lost five wickets for 55 runs (overs 7–16), sliding from early dominance into damage limitation. Turner’s 3/21 headlined that squeeze, while Katie Levick’s 1/18 helped keep boundaries scarce and forced risk against the spin. In contrast, Durham matched Hampshire’s mid-overs rate (55/5) but crucially had a platform from 48/0 in the powerplay, meaning their wobble didn’t become a collapse.

Villiers-Armitage calm, Graham closes

Turner was the difference-maker, breaking partnerships and dictating tempo. In the chase, Mady Villiers (25 off 27) and Hollie Armitage stitched the key 50-run stand that rebuilt after wickets fell, taking Durham from pressure into control. Heather Graham’s 35 off 32 then ensured the required rate never spiked, even as Hampshire’s Poppy Tulloch (2/22) kept the finish honest late on.

Home edge didn’t translate

Pre-match numbers leaned Hampshire’s way: stronger recent form, home record and a projected edge in matchups. But the contest followed Durham’s preferred script — absorb the powerplay, then attack the middle with tighter lengths and slower bowling. Hampshire’s best stand was only 29 (Ella McCaughan and Georgia Adams), and once the early momentum faded, their death-overs 24/1 wasn’t enough to reset the chase.