Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Washington Freedom have won the last three meetings against Seattle Orcas. In the most recent clash last season, Freedom won by 8 wickets with 64 balls remaining after Seattle were bowled out for 82. The match was defined by Seattle’s batting collapse, which left Freedom a small chase that they finished comfortably. The broader pattern is one-way: Freedom are 3-for-3 in the last three head-to-heads.

WSWashington Freedom 86/2

SOSeattle Orcas 82/10

2025-07-04 · WSF won by 8 wickets (with 64 balls remaining)

SOSeattle Orcas 145/9

WSWashington Freedom 149/5

2025-06-15 · WSF won by 5 wickets (with 39 balls remaining)

SOSeattle Orcas 124/10

WSWashington Freedom 127/5

2024-07-12 · WSF won by 5 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

Seattle Orcas

Seattle Orcas are 6th in the MLC regular season with 0 points from a 0W-1L start and a -0.946 NRR. Their recent run reads like a slide: three straight losses, including a six-wicket defeat to Texas Super Kings with 9 balls remaining even after posting 220/2. They have not converted big totals into wins in their latest outing.

SOSeattle Orcas 220/2

TSTexas Super Kings 221/4

2026-06-19 · TSK won by 6 wickets (with 9 balls remaining)

SOSeattle Orcas 137/10

TSTexas Super Kings 188/4

2025-07-05 · TSK won by 51 runs

SOSeattle Orcas 82/10

WSWashington Freedom 86/2

2025-07-04 · WSF won by 8 wickets (with 64 balls remaining)

Washington Freedom

Washington Freedom are playing their first match of this MLC season. Their recent results outside this season show two wins in their last three matches, including a six-wicket win with 18 balls remaining against MI New York. They also beat Seattle in their most recent head-to-head by 8 wickets with 64 balls remaining.

WSWashington Freedom 175/5

MIMI New York 180/7

2025-07-14 · MINY won by 5 runs

WSWashington Freedom 113/4

MIMI New York 112/8

2025-07-06 · WSF won by 6 wickets (with 18 balls remaining)

WSWashington Freedom 86/2

SOSeattle Orcas 82/10

2025-07-04 · WSF won by 8 wickets (with 64 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

All four models are in consensus for Washington Freedom, with the average projection at WSF 65% vs SO 35%. Bookmakers also lean WSF, pricing Washington at 54% (1.76) vs Seattle at 46% (2.00). Key stats favour Washington 6-1 overall, driven by the head-to-head sweep and stronger recent win-rate indicators. Seattle’s main statistical edge sits in the death-overs economy, but they need it to translate into a full 20-over performance.

Baartman slams the brakes

Ottneil Baartman’s four-wicket burst was the hinge in a run-fest that Washington looked set to boss after a blistering start. Even with Mitchell Owen counterpunching late, Freedom’s innings kept losing shape, and Seattle’s chase never truly panicked once Tim Seifert had ignited it. The Orcas got home by five wickets with 14 balls remaining, finishing the job in 17.4 overs.

Middle overs flip the script

The decisive swing came between overs 7 and 15 of Washington’s innings. From 82/0 in the powerplay, Freedom managed 103/5 in the middle phase, a collapse that drained momentum and forced risk at the death. Seattle’s cutters and hard lengths turned boundaries into singles, and the wickets meant Washington’s final push shrank to 31/5 at the back end — not enough protection for 216.

Seifert and Baartman set it up

Seifert’s 78 off 33 was the loudest statement, especially in the powerplay where Seattle raced to 78/1 and immediately put 216 in their sights. Matthew Breetzke’s 67 off 36, in an 89-run stand with Seifert, ensured the tempo didn’t dip when wickets fell. Baartman then supplied the match-winning control with the ball, repeatedly breaking Washington’s attempts to reset after the early surge.

Pre-match edge meets a new reality

All the pre-match signs pointed to Washington: better recent results, a head-to-head sweep, and a stronger batting matchup on paper. But this game punished anything short of a complete 20 overs. Freedom’s powerplay dominance didn’t translate because they couldn’t keep partnerships intact through the middle, while Seattle’s supposed vulnerability at the death never surfaced — the chase was effectively won up front.