Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, MI London W lead 2-1. The most recent clash was last season, when MI London W won by 39 runs after posting 150/5 and bowling Welsh Fire W out for 111. That game was defined by Welsh Fire W being dismissed for 111 in the chase. The wider pattern is MI London W winning the last two head-to-heads after Welsh Fire W took the earlier one.

MIMI London W 150/5

WFWelsh Fire W 111/10

2025-08-16 · Oval Invincibles W won by 39 runs

WFWelsh Fire W 116/5

MIMI London W 118/4

2024-07-28 · Oval Invincibles W won by 6 wickets (with 12 balls remaining)

MIMI London W 80/10

WFWelsh Fire W 81/7

2023-08-06 · WF-W won by 3 wickets (with 20 balls remaining)

Welsh Fire W

Welsh Fire W are 5th in the regular season with 0 points, 0W-1L, and a -0.480 NRR. Their latest match was an 8-run defeat to Southern Brave W, with Welsh Fire W finishing on 118/8 in reply to 126/7, showing a close chase that still ended short.

WFWelsh Fire W 118/8

SBSouthern Brave W 126/7

2026-07-22 · SB-W won by 8 runs

WFWelsh Fire W 77/9

SBSouthern Brave W 106/8

2025-08-28 · SB-W won by 29 runs

WFWelsh Fire W 122/9

TRTrent Rockets W 145/6

2025-08-24 · TR-W won by 23 runs

MI London W

MI London W are 6th in the regular season with 0 points, 0W-1L, and a -3.058 NRR. Their latest match was a 7-wicket loss to Sunrisers Leeds W, with MI London W making 107/8 and then conceding 109/3, a result shaped by being outscored after a low total.

MIMI London W 107/8

SLSunrisers Leeds W 109/3

2026-07-21 · SL-W won by 7 wickets (with 31 balls remaining)

MIMI London W 108/8

LSLondon Spirit W 112/2

2025-08-25 · LS-W won by 8 wickets (with 38 balls remaining)

MIMI London W 125/6

SLSunrisers Leeds W 127/3

2025-08-23 · Northern Superchargers W won by 7 wickets (with 5 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

Models are split but lean Welsh Fire W, with Welsh Fire W favoured 54% on average and individual calls ranging from 42% to 63%. Bookmakers diverge from that lean, pricing Welsh Fire W at 41% (2.25) vs MI London W at 59% (1.60). Key stats overall favour MI London W 4-1, driven by edges in Elo, head-to-head, and player metrics, while Welsh Fire W’s main statistical advantage is the better NRR. The match likely turns on whether Welsh Fire W can overcome the recent head-to-head trend and whether MI London W can avoid another low-scoring setup like their last outing.

Wareham’s 20-ball blitz

Georgia Wareham changed the temperature of the game in a hurry, launching Welsh Fire from a steady start into a total MI London couldn’t reel in. Her 79-run stand with Sophie Devine flipped the middle overs, and the finish was emphatic enough to set up a 60-run win: Welsh Fire 177/4 in 16.4, MI London 117 all out in 15.2. MI London had brief hope when wickets fell in the middle, but the late acceleration left them chasing the game from the restart.

Death overs blow the doors off

The decisive phase was the back end of Welsh Fire’s innings. After a controlled middle (91/3), they detonated the death overs with 54/1 at 13.5 an over, turning a competitive platform into a near-180 chase. That surge mattered because MI London’s reply never found a matching gear: their death phase produced just 6/3 at 2.5 an over, the chase effectively ending once the required rate spiked and wickets kept tumbling.

Wareham and Devine set it up

Wareham’s 43 off 20 was the innings that shifted the ceiling, and Devine’s 52 off 29 ensured Welsh Fire cashed in when the field spread. Georgia Voll’s 42 off 26 kept the tempo honest so the late hitters could swing freely. With the ball, Grace Potts’ 3/24 and Sophia Smale’s 2/17 squeezed MI London through the middle, and Wareham’s 2/23 capped a performance that never let the chase breathe.

Control beats the Elo edge

Pre-match, the talk was whether Welsh Fire’s bowling control could override MI London’s slight head-to-head/Elo advantage, and that’s exactly how it played out. The bookmakers’ lean towards MI London assumed their stronger profile would hold under pressure, but Welsh Fire’s sharper phases did the damage: a cleaner powerplay with the bat (32/0) and early inroads with the ball (25/2) meant MI London were chasing both runs and momentum. Even when a 46-run partnership offered resistance, the chase never stabilised.