Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Welsh Fire lead the last three meetings 2–1. In the most recent clash last season, Trent Rockets won by 23 runs after posting 145/6 and holding Welsh Fire to 122/9. The match turned on Welsh Fire losing nine wickets while chasing. Across the last three games, results have swung, with both teams taking turns to win.

WFWelsh Fire W 122/9

TRTrent Rockets W 145/6

2025-08-24 · TR-W won by 23 runs

TRTrent Rockets W 130/5

WFWelsh Fire W 131/4

2024-08-03 · WF-W won by 6 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

WFWelsh Fire W 181/3

TRTrent Rockets W 140/5

2023-08-14 · WF-W won by 41 runs

Welsh Fire W

Welsh Fire Women are 4th in the regular season on 4 points with a 1–1 record. Their latest outing was a dominant 60-run win over MI London after making 177/4 and bowling the opposition out for 117. That followed an 8-run defeat to Southern Brave, so their early season has already flipped between a tight loss and a big statement win.

WFWelsh Fire W 177/4

MIMI London W 117/10

2026-07-25 · WF-W won by 60 runs

WFWelsh Fire W 118/8

SBSouthern Brave W 126/7

2026-07-22 · SB-W won by 8 runs

WFWelsh Fire W 77/9

SBSouthern Brave W 106/8

2025-08-28 · SB-W won by 29 runs

Trent Rockets W

Trent Rockets Women are 3rd in the regular season on 4 points with a 1–1 record, currently in the playoff zone. They come in off a 5-wicket loss to London Spirit despite scoring 142/6. Just before that, they crushed Birmingham Phoenix by 9 wickets with 69 balls remaining, showing they can win games in one-sided fashion.

TRTrent Rockets W 142/6

LSLondon Spirit W 146/5

2026-07-26 · LS-W won by 5 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

TRTrent Rockets W 68/1

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 64/10

2026-07-24 · TR-W won by 9 wickets (with 69 balls remaining)

TRTrent Rockets W 126/7

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 123/6

2025-08-27 · TR-W won by 3 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

All four models favour Trent Rockets, with an average win probability of 60% (range 55–68%). Bookmakers agree, pricing Trent Rockets at 59% (1.60) vs Welsh Fire at 41% (2.30). Key stats lean Trent Rockets 5–1 overall, driven by advantages in net run rate, Elo, and recent form. Welsh Fire’s edge is the last-three H2H record, so the key question is whether that matchup trend can override Rockets’ broader metrics.

Mooney makes it look easy

Beth Mooney set the tone for a ruthless chase, and Trent Rockets W duly beat Welsh Fire W by 8 wickets with 17 balls remaining. Fire had moments of control through Sophie Devine’s crisp start and a stabilising stand with Freya Kemp, but once Mooney began finding the short straight boundary, the target started to shrink fast. Even when Rockets lost two wickets in the middle overs, Mooney’s calm kept the chase on rails before a late burst sealed it.

Powerplay burst breaks chase

The match swung in the first phase of the Rockets innings. While Fire crawled to 13/0 in the powerplay, Rockets surged to 36/0 at 9.0 an over, instantly flipping the required rate and forcing defensive fields. That early damage meant Fire’s later acceleration — 34 runs in the death at 8.5 an over — didn’t create enough scoreboard pressure. By the time the middle overs arrived, Rockets could afford to absorb a brief wobble and still keep the chase comfortably ahead.

Mooney, Phillips set the template

Mooney’s 58 off 35 was the difference between a chase and a procession: she scored at 166 while keeping risk low, and her 71-run partnership with the other opener gave Rockets their platform. Natalie Sciver-Brunt’s 37 off 23 ensured there was no dip when wickets fell in the middle. With the ball, Charley Phillips’ 2/17 squeezed Fire’s scoring options, making that 129/3 feel 15-20 short once Rockets exploded out of the blocks.

Pre-match edge shows up early

The numbers favoured Rockets because they’ve been starting games faster and controlling chases, and that played out exactly here. Fire’s innings was built more on preservation than domination, and even Devine’s 38 off 25 couldn’t disguise how quiet the first 20 balls were. Rockets, by contrast, won the momentum battle before the contest could settle, and their stronger recent form showed in how quickly they converted a chase into a sprint.