Toss & Conditions

Pitch no. 4 in New Chandigarh previously saw PBKS chase 163 in a tight finish against Gujarat Titans. Dew is a factor in night games here, but on this strip the team batting first has won two of the last three matches after posting 205 and 228, making the toss decision unclear.

Head-to-Head

PBKS have won 2 of the last 3 head-to-head matches against RR.

RRRajasthan Royals 209/7

PBPunjab Kings 219/5

2025-05-18 · PBKS won by 10 runs

PBPunjab Kings 155/9

RRRajasthan Royals 205/4

2025-04-05 · RR won by 50 runs

RRRajasthan Royals 144/9

PBPunjab Kings 145/5

2024-05-15 · PBKS won by 5 wickets (with 7 balls remaining)

Punjab Kings

PBKS are #1 in the IPL regular season with 13 points and a 6W-0L record, currently in the playoff zone. They have won their last three matches, including chases of 198/3 vs MI and 265/4 vs DC, plus a 54-run win vs LSG.

PBPunjab Kings 265/4

DCDelhi Capitals 264/2

2026-04-25 · PBKS won by 6 wickets (with 7 balls remaining)

PBPunjab Kings 254/7

LSLucknow Super Giants 200/5

2026-04-19 · PBKS won by 54 runs

PBPunjab Kings 198/3

MIMumbai Indians 195/6

2026-04-16 · PBKS won by 7 wickets (with 21 balls remaining)

Rajasthan Royals

RR are #4 in the IPL regular season with 10 points and a 5W-3L record, currently in the playoff zone. They have gone 1W-2L in their last three matches, losing to SRH (229/5 chase) and KKR, and beating LSG by 40 runs.

RRRajasthan Royals 228/6

SRSunrisers Hyderabad 229/5

2026-04-25 · SRH won by 5 wickets (with 9 balls remaining)

RRRajasthan Royals 159/6

LSLucknow Super Giants 119/10

2026-04-22 · RR won by 40 runs

RRRajasthan Royals 155/9

KKKolkata Knight Riders 161/6

2026-04-19 · KKR won by 4 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

Playing XI

News & Facts

Key Stats

Verdict

Key Stats favor PBKS 6-2, driven by points (13 vs 10), NRR (+1.33 vs +0.60), Elo (1627 vs 1503), and last-3 winrate (100% vs 33%). All four models favor PBKS, with a model-average win probability of PBKS 68% vs RR 32% (ML 60-40, AI1 74-26, AI2 68-32, Math 68-32). The bookmaker prices PBKS at 55% (1.73) vs RR 45% (2.12), with the decisive factors in the data being PBKS’s higher NRR/Elo and their 3-0 run in the last three matches.

Ferreira finishes the heist

Donovan Ferreira turned a daunting chase into a late, clean getaway, keeping his nerve as Rajasthan Royals overhauled 222 with four balls to spare. Punjab Kings had looked set when Marcus Stoinis detonated 62 off 22, but the chase never drifted once RR’s top order launched early and Ferreira’s 52 off 26 bridged the tricky middle. The decisive moment came in the 18th over: with the asking rate climbing, Ferreira found the boundary twice to flip the pressure back onto PBKS, and Shubham Dubey stayed close enough to close it out.

Powerplay punch set the pace

The game was effectively won in the first six overs of the chase. RR blasted 84/1 in the powerplay at 14 an over, instantly turning a 223 target into a manageable equation and forcing PBKS to defend without a cushion. That early surge meant the middle overs could be played with restraint (96/3 at 9.4) rather than panic, and it also protected RR from Punjab’s one big fightback spell — Yuzvendra Chahal’s 3 for 36 — because the required rate never spiralled beyond reach.

Stoinis’ blitz, Chahal’s tease

Stoinis’ assault was the reason PBKS had a defendable total at all, transforming a good platform into a huge one in a handful of overs. Chahal then briefly made it interesting, breaking partnerships and dragging the chase into the final three overs. But Ferreira’s clean hitting — and the 77-run stand with Dubey — proved the difference between a big total and a winning one.

Why the numbers misled

Pre-match indicators leaned Punjab: better form, a healthier NRR, and a bigger Elo gap. But those edges assumed PBKS could control the tempo with the ball; instead, their powerplay economy was exposed when RR came out swinging. Punjab’s own innings showed their vulnerability too: despite 222/4, they needed a death-overs burst (62 in the last four) to reach that height, suggesting the surface was primed for a chase if the new ball was mastered.