Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, Trent Rockets lead Southern Brave 2-1. In the most recent clash last season, Rockets chased down the target and won with four balls remaining, after Brave posted 140/4. The finish was tight enough that the result wasn’t settled until the final set of deliveries. The pattern across these three games is narrow margins, with two of them decided in the last over or equivalent.

TRTrent Rockets 145/6

SBSouthern Brave 140/4

2025-08-16 · TR won by 4 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

SBSouthern Brave 127/8

TRTrent Rockets 126/8

2024-08-10 · SB won by 2 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

TRTrent Rockets 133/8

SBSouthern Brave 127/10

2023-08-01 · TR won by 6 runs

Trent Rockets

Trent Rockets are 1st in the regular season with 24 points and are currently in the playoff zone. They have won their last three matches in a row, including a chase where they finished with 10 balls remaining. The recent run includes both a close 5-run win and more comfortable chases, showing they’ve found ways to win in different game states.

TRTrent Rockets 148/4

MIMI London 147/7

2026-08-08 · TR won by 6 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

TRTrent Rockets 116/3

BPBirmingham Phoenix 111/6

2026-08-05 · TR won by 7 wickets (with 17 balls remaining)

TRTrent Rockets 146/4

SLSunrisers Leeds 141/4

2026-08-02 · TR won by 5 runs

Southern Brave

Southern Brave are 6th in the regular season with 8 points and are currently outside the playoff zone. Their last three matches read as stop-start: one win sandwiched between two defeats. The clearest snapshot is their latest game, where they fell 10 runs short while chasing 150.

SBSouthern Brave 139/6

MSManchester Super Giants 149/8

2026-08-08 · MSG won by 10 runs

SBSouthern Brave 115/8

WFWelsh Fire 116/4

2026-08-03 · WF won by 6 wickets (with 5 balls remaining)

SBSouthern Brave 111/5

LSLondon Spirit 105/10

2026-08-01 · SB won by 5 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Trent Rockets, with the average prediction at 67% for TR. Bookmakers align with the models, pricing TR at 63% (1.50) vs SB at 37% (2.50). Key stats are a clean sweep for TR at 7-0, driven by their stronger table position and recent results. The main question is whether Brave can turn their recent close losses into a complete chase or defense against a Rockets side that keeps closing games out.

Stubbs flips the chase

Tristan Stubbs supplied the decisive burst, muscling Southern Brave out of a potentially awkward pursuit and into a 6-wicket win with 3 balls remaining. Trent Rockets had clawed back momentum late through a 65-run stand that lifted them to 158/5, so Brave needed more than a steady start. Stubbs provided it, changing the tempo in the middle and ensuring the asking rate never ran away.

Middle overs decide it

The match swung in the middle phase, where Brave’s chase outpaced Rockets’ innings. Brave moved from 29/0 in the powerplay to 100/3 through the middle at 8.3 an over, built around the Stubbs–Stoinis partnership worth 70. Rockets, by contrast, were 93/4 in the same phase at 7.8, losing too many wickets to fully cash in. That gap meant Brave could afford a quieter finish, even with a wicket in the death overs.

Stubbs and Stoinis set it up

Stubbs’ 52 off 28 was the innings that broke the script, striking at 186 and forcing Rockets to defend wider fields earlier than they wanted. Stoinis’ 46 off 25 kept the pressure constant at the other end, making sure the 70-run stand didn’t stall. For Rockets, Mitchell Santner’s 35 off 23 was crucial in the late lift, while Craig Overton’s 4 overs for 18 briefly tightened the chase, but Brave’s top-order power carried the day.

Form lines get rewritten

Everything beforehand pointed to Rockets: stronger recent results, a healthier net run-rate, and the comfort of a side that had been closing games. But this match punished their slow powerplay (22/1) and left them chasing the game’s tempo. Brave, coming off tight losses, finally turned a chase into a complete one by starting ahead (29 without loss) and then landing the one big partnership that Rockets couldn’t match.