Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Northamptonshire have won the last three meetings against Warwickshire. In the most recent clash, Northamptonshire chased down Warwickshire’s total and got home with four balls remaining, turning it into a controlled chase under pressure. Warwickshire made 208/7, but Northamptonshire’s 209/4 meant the chase never ran out of time. The wider pattern is one-way: three straight wins for Northamptonshire in this matchup.

WAWarwickshire 208/7

NONorthamptonshire 209/4

2026-05-31 · NOR won by 6 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

WAWarwickshire 176/10

NONorthamptonshire 240/6

2025-07-13 · NOR won by 64 runs

NONorthamptonshire 184/6

WAWarwickshire 174/8

2025-06-11 · NOR won by 10 runs

Northamptonshire

Northamptonshire are 1st in the T20B Regular Season on 36 points with a 9W-2L record. Their last three matches swing between a 53-run win and two losses to Somerset, including a 105-run defeat. The recent story is volatility: they can dominate, but Somerset have exposed them twice in quick succession.

NONorthamptonshire 162/8

SOSomerset 165/3

2026-07-10 · SOM won by 7 wickets (with 30 balls remaining)

NONorthamptonshire 217/7

GLGlamorgan 164/10

2026-07-08 · NOR won by 53 runs

NONorthamptonshire 118/10

SOSomerset 223/4

2026-07-05 · SOM won by 105 runs

Warwickshire

Warwickshire are 12th in the T20B Regular Season on 20 points with a 5W-6L record. They have won two of their last three, including a four-wicket chase that went down to the final ball. The form line suggests they are finding ways to close games, even when the margins are tight.

WAWarwickshire 191/6

GLGlamorgan 188/4

2026-07-10 · WAR won by 4 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

WAWarwickshire 203/5

GLGloucestershire 173/6

2026-07-05 · WAR won by 30 runs

WAWarwickshire 184/4

GLGlamorgan 187/3

2026-07-03 · GLA won by 7 wickets (with 7 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Northamptonshire, with an average win probability of 62% for NOR. Bookmakers also lean NOR, pricing Northamptonshire at 54% (1.75) vs Warwickshire at 46% (2.05). Key stats lean Northamptonshire 6-1 overall, driven by their stronger season position and a clean 3-0 edge in the last three head-to-heads. Warwickshire’s main counterweight is recent match-closing momentum, including a last-ball win.

Smith-Hain flip the chase

Kai Smith turned a shaky pursuit into a controlled finish, driving Warwickshire home by five wickets with 10 balls remaining. Chasing 154, they were 46/4 inside the powerplay and briefly looked in trouble, but Smith’s clean striking and calm rotation reset the tempo. When Sam Hain joined him, the pair shut the door on Northamptonshire’s hopes, taking the chase deep enough that the final overs became a formality.

Middle-overs masterclass

The game was decided in Warwickshire’s middle overs, where they went from survival to dominance. After the early damage, Smith and Hain stitched a 101-run partnership that spanned the heart of the innings, turning 46/4 into a position of control. Warwickshire’s mid-overs return of 84/1 (8.4 an over) meant the required rate never spiked, and their unbeaten 24-run finish at 10.3 an over ensured there was no late squeeze.

Webster strikes, Smith cashes in

Webster was the pivot, his 3/30 keeping Northamptonshire to a chaseable 153 despite a mid-innings fightback. Smith then provided the decisive batting punch with 65 off 40 (SR 162), while Hain’s 48 off 37 played the perfect stabilising foil during the long partnership. George Scrimshaw’s 3/36 briefly raised the noise early in the chase, but once Smith and Hain settled, Northamptonshire’s attack couldn’t find a second opening.

Pre-match edges don’t bat

Northamptonshire came in with the stronger season indicators and a recent head-to-head streak, but this match punished their one soft spot: early stability. Their 40/3 powerplay forced them into recovery mode, and even a brisk Saif Zaib 37 off 24 couldn’t build a defining stand beyond 38. Warwickshire, meanwhile, leaned into their recent knack for closing games; even at 46/4 they kept the chase simple, trusting set batters rather than chasing risky bursts.