Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, Essex lead 2-1. In the most recent clash, Essex won with 24 balls remaining after Hampshire were dismissed for 130, turning it into a controlled chase. The defining feature was Hampshire being bowled out rather than setting a defendable total. The wider pattern is tight but tilted: Essex have edged two finishes, while Hampshire’s one win came by a clear margin.

ESEssex 134/3

HAHampshire 130/10

2026-07-10 · ESS won by 7 wickets (with 24 balls remaining)

HAHampshire 200/4

ESEssex 170/7

2026-05-26 · HAM won by 30 runs

ESEssex 222/6

HAHampshire 220/6

2025-07-17 · ESS won by 4 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

Hampshire

Hampshire’s tournament record is 8W-4L with a +0.309 net run rate. Their last three games have swung between a one-ball, four-wicket win and two defeats, including a loss to Essex where they were bowled out for 130. The recent feel is volatility: they can win tight chases, but their batting has also collapsed under pressure.

HAHampshire 190/6

SUSussex 186/5

2026-07-12 · HAM won by 4 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

HAHampshire 130/10

ESEssex 134/3

2026-07-10 · ESS won by 7 wickets (with 24 balls remaining)

HAHampshire 159/4

MIMiddlesex 162/5

2026-07-08 · MID won by 5 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

Essex

Essex’s tournament record is 7W-5L with a +0.273 net run rate. They’ve won two of their last three, highlighted by an eight-wicket win with 19 balls remaining and a seven-wicket win over Hampshire with 24 balls remaining. The recent feel is control in chases, with their wins coming with significant balls in hand.

ESEssex 124/2

SUSurrey 123/10

2026-07-12 · ESS won by 8 wickets (with 19 balls remaining)

ESEssex 134/3

HAHampshire 130/10

2026-07-10 · ESS won by 7 wickets (with 24 balls remaining)

ESEssex 142/8

MIMiddlesex 143/6

2026-07-05 · MID won by 4 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

Models are split, leaning Essex at 52% on average, while the ML model alone favours Hampshire at 55%. Bookmakers also shade Essex, pricing ESS at 51% (1.85) vs HAM at 49% (1.90). Key stats favour Hampshire 5-2 overall, but Essex bring the stronger recent win-rate and a 2-1 edge in the last three head-to-heads. This looks set to hinge on whether Hampshire’s batting avoids another collapse and whether Essex can keep dictating chases the way they have in the last week.

Vince’s blitz breaks Essex

James Vince didn’t just anchor Hampshire’s innings, he detonated it. After a calm powerplay, he shifted gears through the middle overs and then emptied the tank at the death to turn a good platform into an imposing 211/3. Essex’s chase never recovered from the early damage and, despite a short spell of resistance, they slid to 136/9 as Hampshire sealed a 75-run win.

Death overs turn brutal

The decisive separation came late in Hampshire’s innings. They were already well set at 149/1 after 15 overs, but the last five overs went at 15.5 an over as Vince kept finding the rope and Essex’s plans unravelled. That surge meant Essex needed to attack from ball one, and the risk compounded when Hampshire’s seamers hit hard lengths and defended a total that was suddenly well beyond par.

Baker finishes what Vince started

Vince’s 125 (61) was the match’s defining act, and the 117-run partnership with Joe Weatherley (46 off 26) ensured Hampshire never had to rebuild. The key moment in the chase arrived in the powerplay: Essex were 49/3, and Sonny Baker’s spell kept tightening the screws until it snapped, ending with 5/24. Charlie Allison’s 44 (33) offered a brief glimpse of a contest, but James Fuller’s control (2/24) ensured there was no late twist.

Pre-match lean, match-day flip

Essex arrived with the recent results and a reputation for controlling chases, which is why the balance of opinion shaded their way. But this game flipped on two matchups: Hampshire’s top order avoided the collapse that had haunted them, and Essex’s death-overs bowling couldn’t contain a set Vince. Once Hampshire posted 211, Essex’s stronger recent chasing template was irrelevant — they were forced into a high-wire pursuit from the powerplay.