Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last 1 meeting, Nottinghamshire lead 1-0. The most recent match finished with Nottinghamshire winning by 6 wickets with 16 balls remaining. It was decided by a successful chase, with NOT reaching the target at 129/4 after SUR made 127/7. With only one recent data point, the head-to-head trend is limited but currently tilts to NOT.

SUSurrey 127/7

NONottinghamshire 129/4

2020-10-04 · NOT won by 6 wkts (with 16 balls remaining)

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire are 8W-4L with a +0.094 net run rate. Their last three matches show two close wins, including a 2-run result, before an 18-run defeat. The most telling recent result is the 2-run win, a game decided by fine margins.

NONottinghamshire 175/10

YOYorkshire 193/10

2026-07-12 · YOR won by 18 runs

NONottinghamshire 149/4

LELeicestershire 143/7

2026-07-10 · NOT won by 6 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

NONottinghamshire 166/8

DUDurham 164/6

2026-07-05 · NOT won by 2 runs

Surrey

Surrey are 7W-5L with a +0.441 net run rate. Their last three matches include two convincing wins, then a loss where they were beaten by 8 wickets with 19 balls remaining. The clearest signal is that latest defeat, where SUR were bowled out and the chase was completed with time to spare.

SUSurrey 123/10

ESEssex 124/2

2026-07-12 · ESS won by 8 wickets (with 19 balls remaining)

SUSurrey 106/1

KEKent 102/10

2026-07-10 · SUR won by 9 wickets (with 67 balls remaining)

SUSurrey 177/2

SUSussex 176/7

2026-07-08 · SUR won by 8 wickets (with 16 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

Models are split: the model average leans Nottinghamshire at 56%, but the moneyline model has Surrey at 51%. Bookmakers diverge from the model average, pricing Surrey at 56% (1.70) vs Nottinghamshire at 44% (2.10). Key stats lean Nottinghamshire 4-1 overall, driven by the Elo edge and the last head-to-head win, while Surrey’s stronger net run rate is the main counterweight. The match likely turns on whether NOT’s efficiency edges hold up against SUR’s higher season scoring momentum.

Haynes sets, Surrey stall

Jack Haynes’ 75 was the innings that kept Nottinghamshire ahead of the game, but the decisive twist came at the back end of Surrey’s chase. Jason Roy had them tracking the target through a 101-run stand with Laurie Evans, yet Nottinghamshire held their nerve in the final overs to win by 7 runs, dragging Surrey from a position of comfort into a finish-line scramble.

Death overs slam the door

The match swung almost entirely in the last five overs. Surrey were 128/3 after 15, needing a manageable 36 from 30 balls, but Nottinghamshire’s bowlers shut down the boundary options and forced errors: just 28 came in the death phase, with four wickets falling. That late choke contrasted sharply with Surrey’s brisk powerplay (46/0) and kept Roy’s 76 from 50 balls from becoming a match-winning anchor.

Jordan shines, Linde answers

Chris Jordan was outstanding for Surrey, conceding only 22 while taking 3 wickets, and he helped keep Nottinghamshire to 163/6 when a bigger total was on offer. Haynes’ 68-run partnership with Joe Pocklington provided the platform, but George Linde’s 2/23 was the control act that made the chase uncomfortable. Stone’s 2/23 added the punch, striking at key moments to turn pressure into wickets when Surrey tried to accelerate.

Pre-match edges show up late

The pre-game read was that Nottinghamshire’s small efficiency advantages could matter if they could keep Surrey from running away with the scoring rate. That’s exactly how it played out: Surrey’s season momentum showed early, but Nottinghamshire’s tighter execution at the end outweighed it. Even after a quiet powerplay with the bat (34/2), Nottinghamshire rebuilt through the middle overs and ensured Surrey would need a clean finish rather than a cruise.