Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, Surrey W lead 2-1 over The Blaze W. In the most recent clash, Surrey W beat The Blaze W by 34 runs after posting 155/8 and bowling The Blaze out for 121. The defining feature was The Blaze being dismissed for 121 in the chase. The wider pattern is narrow but clear: Surrey have won two of the last three, with The Blaze’s lone win coming by 17 runs.

TBThe Blaze W 121/10

SUSurrey W 155/8

2026-07-03 · SUR-W won by 34 runs

TBThe Blaze W 122/5

SUSurrey W 132/9

2025-07-11 · SUR-W won by 10 runs

SUSurrey W 152/10

TBThe Blaze W 169/9

2025-06-11 · TB-W won by 17 runs

Surrey W

Surrey W are 8W-3L in the competition with a +0.603 net run rate. Their recent run has mixed a heavy defeat with two wins, including a chase where they got home by 6 wickets with 14 balls remaining against Hampshire W. The clearest signal is their ability to close chases with time in hand in their latest win.

SUSurrey W 136/4

HAHampshire W 132/8

2026-07-12 · SUR-W won by 6 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

SUSurrey W 183/4

WAWarwickshire W 180/5

2026-07-08 · SUR-Women won by 6 wickets (with 30 balls remaining)

SUSurrey W 184/4

ESEssex W 185/1

2026-07-05 · ESS-W won by 9 wickets (with 5 balls remaining)

The Blaze W

The Blaze W are 8W-4L with a +0.255 net run rate. Their last three games show a bounce-back pattern: a 23-run loss to Hampshire W followed by wins by 7 wickets and then by 3 wickets with 5 balls remaining. The most telling result is the latest one, where they held their nerve in a tight chase to win with only 5 balls left.

TBThe Blaze W 123/7

YOYorkshire W 122/10

2026-07-12 · TB-W won by 3 wickets (with 5 balls remaining)

TBThe Blaze W 122/3

SOSomerset W 118/8

2026-07-10 · TB-W won by 7 wickets

TBThe Blaze W 128/8

HAHampshire W 151/8

2026-07-08 · HAM-Women won by 23 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

All four models favour Surrey W, with the model average at 60% for SUR-W. Bookmakers agree, pricing SUR-W at 58% (1.65) vs TB-W at 42% (2.25). Key stats are level overall at 3-3, with Surrey ahead on NRR, Elo, and the last-three head-to-head. The match likely turns on whether The Blaze’s stronger phase-by-phase economy can offset Surrey’s overall edge and recent H2H advantage.

Knott sparks Surrey collapse

Charli Knott’s spell flipped the match on its head, dragging The Blaze back after Surrey’s early dash and setting up a chase that never needed panic. Surrey were bowled out for 105 in 15.2 overs, and although the target kept the game within reach for a while, The Blaze’s top order stayed composed to reach 106 for 4 with 21 balls remaining.

Middle overs decide everything

Surrey’s powerplay promised far more than it delivered: 50 for 3 at 8.3 an over, with Bryony Smith looking busy and positive. Then the middle overs became a slow-motion collapse — 55 for 7 at 5.9 — as The Blaze’s seam-and-spin combo kept taking wickets and denying any reset partnership (Surrey’s best stand was only 28). With no death-overs surge at all, the innings ended early and left Surrey’s bowlers defending a sub-par total.

Bryce anchors, Knott finishes

Knott was the standout, her 4 for 15 repeatedly breaking Surrey’s attempts to rebuild and ensuring the innings never reached a defendable length. Grace Ballinger’s 3 for 18 added the second punch, keeping Surrey in a constant state of damage control. In the chase, Kathryn Bryce’s 34 off 34 was the stabiliser, and her 43-run partnership with Knott defused the only real danger period before Tammy Beaumont’s 29 helped keep the finish routine.

Favourites undone by one phase

Pre-match numbers leaned Surrey’s way on overall strength and recent trends, but this game was decided by a matchup the models can’t always price in: The Blaze’s ability to squeeze and strike through the middle. Surrey’s advantage depended on batting depth and control after the powerplay; instead, they lost shape immediately once the first wave of aggression passed. The Blaze, meanwhile, chased at a steady clip through the same phase (64 for 2 in the middle overs), making the target feel smaller with every over.