Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

ABF lead the last three meetings 2-1. In the most recent meeting, ABF won a chase in a tight finish, getting home with 2 balls remaining and winning by 7 wickets. That game was decided by SNP being restricted to 133/9, leaving ABF a manageable target. Across the last three, two ABF wins have come with 2 balls remaining, pointing to repeated late-match pressure moments between these sides.

ABAntigua & Barbuda Falcons 137/3

SNSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots 133/9

2025-08-24 · ABFwon by 7 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

SNSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots 125/4

ABAntigua & Barbuda Falcons 121/10

2025-08-14 · SNP won by 6 wickets (with 30 balls remaining)

SNSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots 153/8

ABAntigua & Barbuda Falcons 154/8

2024-09-08 · ABF won by 2 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons

ABF are 6th in the CPL regular season with 2 points and a 1W-2L record. Their recent run includes two losses to Saint Lucia Kings, one by 4 runs and another with Saint Lucia getting home with 2 balls remaining. Their lone win in the last three was a last-ball chase, winning with 0 balls remaining.

ABAntigua & Barbuda Falcons 98/9

SLSaint Lucia Kings 54/7

2026-08-14 · SLK won by 3 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

ABAntigua & Barbuda Falcons 183/8

SLSaint Lucia Kings 187/8

2026-08-09 · SLK won by 4 runs

ABAntigua & Barbuda Falcons 168/8

JKJamaica Kingsmen 167/7

2026-08-07 · ABF won by 2 wicket (with 0 ball remaining)

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots

SNP are 7th in the CPL regular season with 2 points and a 1W-2L record. Their latest match was a heavy defeat, losing by 51 runs after being bowled out for 130 in reply to 181/6. The one bright spot in their last three was a chase win over Saint Lucia Kings, finishing with 14 balls remaining.

SNSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots 130/10

JKJamaica Kingsmen 181/6

2026-08-19 · JK won by 51 runs

SNSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots 156/5

SLSaint Lucia Kings 155/8

2026-08-12 · SNP won by 5 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

SNSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots 109/9

TKTrinbago Knight Riders 94/2

2026-08-08 · TKR won by 19 runs (D/L method)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

Models are split, leaning SNP at 52% on average, with individual calls ranging from ABF 52% to SNP 58%. Bookmakers diverge slightly from the model lean, pricing ABF at 52% (1.85) vs SNP at 48% (1.95). Key stats edge ABF 4-2 overall, driven by the NRR/Elo/H2H side of the profile. The match narrative is whether SNP’s stronger recent form signal holds up, or ABF’s head-to-head edge in late finishes shows again.

Lewis anchors the chase

Evin Lewis’ calm 52 off 38 became the spine of Antigua & Barbuda Falcons’ chase as they hunted down 187 and won by three wickets with three balls remaining. The chase wobbled early at 47/2 in the powerplay, but Lewis’ stand of 77 with Hasan Nawaz rebuilt momentum and kept the asking rate in check. Even when wickets fell late, ABF stayed committed to the boundary option and got home in 19.3 overs.

Death overs decide everything

The match swung hardest in the final five overs of each innings. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots surged from a middling position through a 62-run death phase, powered by Dasun Shanaka’s brutal 49 off 17 that flipped a 20-over total from par to imposing. ABF, though, were even sharper at the back end: 51 runs in their death overs at 14.6 an over. That finishing burst meant the earlier damage in the powerplay didn’t define the chase.

Lewis and Mayers set tone

Lewis’ 52 gave ABF a chase template: absorb early risk, then cash in when the bowlers miss. For Patriots, Kyle Mayers was the all-round pivot, striking 34 off 18 and taking 2 for 41 to keep the game alive through the middle. Shanaka’s late assault was the most explosive moment of the night, but ABF’s finishing hitters ensured it didn’t become the match-winner.

Form edge, finishers win

Pre-match, Patriots’ recent form and slightly better NRR hinted they’d handle the key moments, and their innings briefly followed that script when the middle overs slowed ABF’s response. But ABF’s profile has long been about staying in touch and winning tight finishes, and this game again came down to composure under pressure rather than who started better. Once Lewis set a platform, the chase became a contest of execution at the death.