

Match Prediction
Pakistan face Sri Lanka in Pallekele in a T20 World Cup group match. Sri Lanka are already eliminated, while Pakistan retain a conditional chance to reach the semi-finals. Their qualification depends on a large-margin win and other results, including England’s earlier victory over New Zealand. Pakistan must win by around 64 runs or chase any target in about 13.1 overs to stay alive. New Zealand currently hold a net run rate of 1.390 compared to Pakistan’s -0.461. Pakistan have never achieved such a margin against a Full Member at a T20 World Cup when batting first, and only once when chasing, in 2009. The slower Sri Lankan surfaces compared to Indian pitches make that task harder. Sri Lanka have lost their last three matches and were the first team eliminated from the Super Eight. They will aim to finish with a strong performance despite having no qualification stakes. The match also highlights individual focus on Dunith Wellalage and Salman Agha.
Toss & Conditions
The surfaces in Sri Lanka are slower than those in India, which complicates high-scoring chases or large-margin wins.
Head-to-Head
In the last three meetings, Pakistan won twice and Sri Lanka won once. The most recent match on January 11, 2026, was won by Sri Lanka by 14 runs.
Pakistan
Pakistan have one win and two losses in their last three matches, with a current record of 0W-1L and a net run rate of -0.461.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka have lost their last three matches, with a current record of 0W-2L and a net run rate of -2.8.
Playing XI
Key Stats
Verdict
Model projections give Pakistan a 68% win probability against Sri Lanka’s 32%. Bookmakers rate Pakistan at 60% with odds of 1.621. Pakistan hold an Elo advantage of 83 points and a net run rate 1.04 higher than Sri Lanka. Pakistan’s recent home and head-to-head record, along with Sri Lanka’s three straight losses, strengthen the model’s preference for Pakistan.
ENEngland
166/8
PAPakistan
164/9
NANamibia
97/10
PAPakistan
199/3
INIndia
175/7
PAPakistan
114/10
PAPakistan
190/9
USUnited States of America
158/8
NLNetherlands
147/10
PAPakistan
148/7
PAPakistan
207/6
AUAustralia
96/10
PAPakistan
198/5
AUAustralia
108/10
PAPakistan
168/8
AUAustralia
146/8
SLSri Lanka
160/6
PAPakistan
146/8
SLSri Lanka
128/10
PAPakistan
129/4
PA4
SL6
SLSri Lanka
160/6
PAPakistan
146/8
SLSri Lanka
128/10
PAPakistan
129/4
PAPakistan
118/4
SLSri Lanka
114/10
PAPakistan
178/7
SLSri Lanka
184/5
PAPakistan
131/3
SLSri Lanka
128/7
PAPakistan
138/5
SLSri Lanka
133/8
PAPakistan
252/7
SLSri Lanka
252/8
SLSri Lanka
170/6
PAPakistan
147/10
SLSri Lanka
124/5
PAPakistan
121/10
PAPakistan
134/6
SLSri Lanka
147/7
NZNew Zealand
168/7
SLSri Lanka
107/8
ENEngland
146/9
SLSri Lanka
95/10
SLSri Lanka
178/7
ZIZimbabwe
182/4
AUAustralia
181/10
SLSri Lanka
184/2
SLSri Lanka
225/5
OMOman
120/9
SLSri Lanka
163/6
IRIreland
143/10
SLSri Lanka
116/10
ENEngland
128/9
SLSri Lanka
189/5
ENEngland
173/4
SLSri Lanka
133/10
ENEngland
125/4
SLSri Lanka
160/6
PAPakistan
146/8
