Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

SFU have won the last three head-to-head meetings against TSK. In the most recent meeting, SFU chased down TSK’s total and finished the job with 13 balls remaining. The game turned on SFU keeping control of the chase while TSK were restricted to 152/9. The broader pattern is one-way: TSK are 0-for-3 in the last three against SFU.

TSTexas Super Kings 152/9

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 153/3

2026-06-20 · SFU won by 7 wickets (with 13 balls remaining)

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 148/6

TSTexas Super Kings 147/7

2025-07-04 · SFU won by 1 run

TSTexas Super Kings 198/5

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 202/3

2025-06-21 · SFU won by 7 wickets (with 23 balls remaining)

San Francisco Unicorns

SFU are 2nd in the MLC regular season on 2 points with a 1W-1L record, currently in the playoff zone. Their latest result was a controlled chase win over TSK, sealed with 13 balls remaining. The match before that was a 7-wicket defeat to LAKR with 2 balls remaining, showing their recent games have swung on late-innings execution.

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 153/3

TSTexas Super Kings 152/9

2026-06-20 · SFU won by 7 wickets (with 13 balls remaining)

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 150/7

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 154/3

2026-06-19 · LAKR won by 7 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 131/10

MIMI New York 132/8

2025-07-10 · MINY won by 2 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

Texas Super Kings

TSK are 5th in the MLC regular season on 2 points with a 1W-2L record, currently outside the playoff zone. Their most telling recent result was being beaten by MI New York by 8 wickets with 14 balls remaining after being bowled out for 158. They did edge Seattle Orcas by 6 wickets with 9 balls remaining, but the last two games have ended in defeats.

TSTexas Super Kings 158/10

MIMI New York 162/2

2026-06-22 · MINY won by 8 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 152/9

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 153/3

2026-06-20 · SFU won by 7 wickets (with 13 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 221/4

SOSeattle Orcas 220/2

2026-06-19 · TSK won by 6 wickets (with 9 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models are in consensus for SFU, with an average win probability of 63%. Bookmakers agree, pricing SFU at 61% (1.57) vs TSK at 39% (2.40). Key stats favour SFU 5-1, driven by the NRR edge and a clean 3-0 run in the last three head-to-heads. The swing factor is whether TSK can reverse the matchup trend after losing the latest meeting with SFU finishing the chase with 13 balls to spare.

De Silva’s four-for snaps chase

Amshi de Silva was the decisive act, slicing through San Francisco Unicorns’ chase just as it threatened to settle. Texas Super Kings’ 161/8 never looked completely out of reach, but SFU kept losing wickets in clumps and were bowled out for 139 in 17.4 overs, handing TSK a 22-run win. The chase flickered early, then faded as TSK’s seam and changes of pace forced miscues and rushed shots.

Middle overs choke SFU out

The match swung in the middle phase, where SFU’s innings stalled and collapsed simultaneously. After a jittery but scoring powerplay of 53/3, they managed only 73/5 through the middle overs at 7.3 an over, with wickets preventing any launch. With the best stand just 22, every attempted rebuild was cut short, and the required rate kept climbing. By the time the death overs arrived, SFU had too many balls left and too few set batters to attack.

Ferreira, Faf and the finish

Donovan Ferreira’s 45 off 28 was the innings’ accelerator, arriving when Texas needed momentum after slipping to 118/5. Faf du Plessis set the platform with a brisk 40 off 24 in a 72-run stand that kept the innings ahead of the game. Then de Silva, backed by Abhimanyu Lamba’s 2/22, made sure SFU never got a clean passage: key breakthroughs in the middle overs turned pressure into collapse.

Pre-match edge flips on its head

San Francisco came in favoured on recent head-to-heads and a healthier season profile, but this game punished their one soft spot: losing early wickets. Texas, expected to be sharper in matchups, delivered exactly that by keeping their top order intact in the powerplay at 48/0, then absorbing a mid-innings wobble. The late surge — 43 runs in the last five overs — proved decisive once SFU’s chase lost shape.