Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

New Zealand and Sri Lanka have met three times recently, with New Zealand winning twice and Sri Lanka once. The latest clash on January 2, 2025, saw Sri Lanka chase 212 successfully to win by five wickets.

New Zealand

New Zealand have won two of their last three matches, beating Canada and UAE but losing to South Africa.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka have won one of their last three matches, defeating Australia but losing to Zimbabwe and England.

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

Model probability gives New Zealand a 58% edge versus 42% for Sri Lanka, supported by a 49-point Elo advantage and a 2-1 head-to-head lead. Sri Lanka hold a 0.89 better NRR, but New Zealand’s recent 2/3 win rate and lineup impact of +49 strengthen their case. Bookmakers rate New Zealand at 60% (1.613 odds), aligning with model data. Overall, New Zealand hold a notable edge but not dominance — lean New Zealand.