Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, Washington Freedom lead Texas Super Kings 2-1. The most recent clash was decided on the final ball, with WSF winning by 1 wicket. It was a high-pressure chase where WSF got over the line with no balls remaining after TSK posted 185/4. The wider pattern is consistently tight: all three games were decided by either a last-ball finish, a late chase with balls to spare, or a big margin win.

WSWashington Freedom 187/9

TSTexas Super Kings 185/4

2026-06-28 · WSF won by 1 wicket (with 0 ball remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 87/2

WSWashington Freedom 44/4

2025-07-02 · TSK won by 43 runs

WSWashington Freedom 223/3

TSTexas Super Kings 220/6

2025-06-23 · WSF won by 7 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

Texas Super Kings

Texas Super Kings are 6th in the MLC regular season with 6 points, a 3W-5L record, and a -0.122 NRR. They come in on a three-match losing run, with their latest defeat a 9-run loss after being bowled out for 112/9 in reply to 121/9. The recent pattern is narrow losses, including a 1-wicket defeat to WSF that went to the final ball.

TSTexas Super Kings 112/9

SOSeattle Orcas 121/9

2026-07-05 · SO won by 9 runs

TSTexas Super Kings 173/5

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 175/4

2026-07-04 · LAKR won by 6 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 185/4

WSWashington Freedom 187/9

2026-06-28 · WSF won by 1 wicket (with 0 ball remaining)

Washington Freedom

Washington Freedom are 5th in the MLC regular season with 8 points, a 4W-4L record, and a -0.637 NRR. Their last three include two wins and one loss, most recently an 18-run defeat after conceding 192/8. The clearest positive is their ability to finish chases, highlighted by a 6-wicket win with 17 balls remaining against LAKR.

WSWashington Freedom 174/8

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 192/8

2026-07-10 · LAKR won by 18 runs

WSWashington Freedom 129/5

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 126/10

2026-07-04 · WSF won by 5 wickets (with 11 balls remaining)

WSWashington Freedom 110/4

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 108/10

2026-07-02 · WSF won by 6 wickets (with 17 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Washington Freedom, with the model average at WSF 60% and TSK 40%. Bookmakers agree, pricing WSF at 56% (1.70) vs TSK at 44% (2.15). Key stats are level overall at 4-4, with WSF ahead on points, Elo, recent winrate, and the last-three H2H edge. This looks like a test of whether TSK’s better run-rate and stronger economy phases can outweigh WSF’s recent results and head-to-head momentum.

Smith holds the chase together

Steven Smith’s counterpunch changed the mood of a chase that kept threatening to unravel. Washington Freedom were forced to rebuild after early damage, then surged late to reach 166/7 with two balls to spare, sealing a three-wicket win. Texas Super Kings had moments where the game felt in their grip — especially after a flying start with the bat — but the match swung on how sharply their innings fell away and how calmly Freedom navigated the chaos.

TSK’s death-overs crash

The decisive phase was Texas’ final five overs. From a commanding 144/4 after 15, they tumbled to 165 all out, losing six wickets for 21 as boundaries dried up and risk crept in. Washington’s bowlers kept the stumps in play and forced mistimed swings, turning a platform built by a 93-run opening stand into a below-par finish. That left Freedom needing a chaseable target despite their own middle-overs wobble.

Du Plessis shines, Freedom finish

Faf du Plessis was the standout for Texas, striking 61 off 41 to set the tempo, with Saiteja Mukkamalla’s 48 off 29 providing the early acceleration. But Mitchell Owen’s 2 for 19 and Rachin Ravindra’s 2 for 20 helped trigger the late squeeze that flipped the innings. In the chase, Smith’s 46 off 29 anchored the recovery before Freedom’s late hitters cashed in, making the final overs their winning window.

Form edge shows late

Pre-match, Freedom’s recent results and head-to-head momentum suggested they’d stay composed in the tight moments, even if Texas’ bowling numbers looked better on paper. That’s exactly how it played out: Texas won the powerplay battle (66/0), but couldn’t sustain pressure through the innings’ back end, while Freedom absorbed a rough middle (57/5) and still had the clarity to attack late.