Toss & Conditions

The match is on Pitch No. 4, which has produced two low-scoring games in IPL 2026, and LSG were bowled out for 141 and 119 on this surface in defeats. Fast bowlers took 23 of the 30 wickets in those two games, while across IPL matches since 2024 on this pitch spinners have been only marginally more economical than quicks (9.35 vs 9.51).

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, CSK lead 2-1. In the most recent clash, CSK won by five wickets in a chase that went down to the final four balls. The game was decided by CSK getting over the line in a tight finish while LSG ended their innings eight down. The pattern in the last three is mixed, with both teams having won close games.

CSChennai Super Kings 208/5

LSLucknow Super Giants 203/8

2026-05-10 · CSK won by 5 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

LSLucknow Super Giants 166/7

CSChennai Super Kings 168/5

2025-04-14 · CSK won by 5 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

CSChennai Super Kings 210/4

LSLucknow Super Giants 213/4

2024-04-23 · LSG won by 6 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

Lucknow Super Giants

LSG are 10th in the IPL regular season with 6 points. Their last three matches include two defeats and one win, and the latest was a five-wicket loss to CSK in a chase that finished with four balls remaining. Their most recent win came via the DLS method, by 9 runs against Royal Challengers Bengaluru.

LSLucknow Super Giants 203/8

CSChennai Super Kings 208/5

2026-05-10 · CSK won by 5 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

LSLucknow Super Giants 209/3

RCRoyal Challengers Bengaluru 203/6

2026-05-07 · LSG won by 9 runs (DLS method)

LSLucknow Super Giants 228/5

MIMumbai Indians 229/4

2026-05-04 · MI won by 6 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

Chennai Super Kings

CSK are 5th in the IPL regular season with 12 points and currently inside the playoff zone. They have won their last three matches, including an eight-wicket win over Delhi Capitals and an eight-wicket win over Mumbai Indians. Their latest win was a five-wicket chase against LSG with four balls remaining.

CSChennai Super Kings 208/5

LSLucknow Super Giants 203/8

2026-05-10 · CSK won by 5 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

CSChennai Super Kings 159/2

DCDelhi Capitals 155/7

2026-05-05 · CSK won by 8 wickets (with 15 balls remaining)

CSChennai Super Kings 160/2

MIMumbai Indians 159/7

2026-05-02 · CSK won by 8 wickets (with 11 balls remaining)

Playing XI

News & Facts

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour CSK, with the model average at CSK 68% vs LSG 32%. Bookmakers are far closer to a coin-flip, pricing LSG at 49% (1.91) vs CSK at 51% (1.90). Key stats lean heavily to CSK overall (7-1), driven by the points gap, better NRR, stronger Elo, a 3-0 run in the last three games, and a clear death-overs economy edge. The swing factor is CSK’s need to replace the injured Jamie Overton without a like-for-like option.

Marsh blows the chase open

Mitchell Marsh didn’t just pace a chase — he detonated it. After CSK posted 187/5, Marsh’s 90 off 38 set the tone for a ruthless reply, and Lucknow Super Giants cruised home by seven wickets with 20 balls remaining. Even when three wickets fell in the middle overs, the damage had already been done: the required rate never felt like it belonged to the bowling side.

Powerplay blitz flips the script

The match was effectively won in the first six overs. LSG rocketed to 86/0 in the powerplay, turning a par-looking target into a chase that demanded only containment. CSK’s bowlers briefly found a grip through the middle as LSG went 78/3, but the early surge meant those strikes arrived too late to create real scoreboard pressure. By the time the death overs began, LSG needed just 24, and they closed it out in 16.4.

Marsh, Maharaj set the frame

Marsh was the headline act, mixing clean hitting with smart targeting to keep the chase ahead of the curve. Josh Inglis’ 36 off 32 played the stabiliser in their 129-run partnership, ensuring the early momentum didn’t leak away. With the ball, Akash Maharaj Singh’s 3/26 was the key restraint that stopped CSK from pushing beyond 200 — a ceiling that might have finally tested LSG’s middle-overs wobble.

CSK’s edges never showed up

Pre-match numbers leaned CSK: better recent form, a sizeable Elo gap, and a projected death-overs economy advantage. None of that mattered once their top order stumbled to 37/2 in the powerplay, forcing a catch-up innings. Kartik Sharma’s 71 off 42 and a 70-run stand with Dewald Brevis repaired the total, but 187 felt defendable only if CSK could win the new-ball phase — and they lost it heavily.