Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Yorkshire lead the last three meetings 2–1. In the most recent clash, Yorkshire edged Nottinghamshire by 9 runs after posting 175/8 and defending it against 166/9. The game was decided by Yorkshire holding Nottinghamshire to nine runs short of the target. Across the last three, results have been tight rather than one-sided, with both teams trading wins.

NONottinghamshire 166/9

YOYorkshire 175/8

2025-06-11 · YOR won by 9 runs

YOYorkshire 181/6

NONottinghamshire 209/9

2024-07-19 · NOT won by 28 runs

NONottinghamshire 174/4

YOYorkshire 182/7

2023-05-30 · YOR won by 8 runs

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire’s last three matches show a bounce-back pattern: a 45-run loss was followed by two wins. Their most telling recent result was a 4-wicket win over Lancashire, completed with 28 balls remaining. They also beat Durham by 7 wickets with 8 balls remaining, suggesting they’ve finished chases with time in hand when they get on top.

NONottinghamshire 127/6

LALancashire 126/10

2025-07-18 · NOT won by 4 wickets (with 28 balls remaining)

NONottinghamshire 161/10

WOWorcestershire 206/7

2025-07-17 · WOR won by 45 runs

NONottinghamshire 159/3

DUDurham 156/10

2025-07-11 · NOT won by 7 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

Yorkshire

Yorkshire come into their season opener off a mixed last three, with two defeats followed by a win. The standout result is a 2-wicket win over Leicestershire with 0 balls remaining, a finish that went to the last delivery. Either side of that, they lost by 21 runs to Lancashire and by 8 wickets to Derbyshire, so the recent trend has been uneven.

YOYorkshire 188/8

LELeicestershire 185/10

2025-07-18 · YOR won by 2 wickets (with 0 balls remaining)

YOYorkshire 153/10

LALancashire 174/10

2025-07-17 · LAN won by 21 runs

YOYorkshire 151/9

DEDerbyshire 157/2

2025-07-13 · DER won by 8 wickets (with 20 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Nottinghamshire, with the average projection at 58% for NOT. Bookmakers diverge from that, pricing NOT at 47% (1.96) vs YOR at 53% (1.76). Key stats overall lean Yorkshire 4–2, despite Nottinghamshire leading on Elo and recent winrate. This looks set to hinge on whether Nottinghamshire’s stronger recent results can overcome Yorkshire’s edge across the bowling-economy splits and the recent head-to-head.

Bairstow breaks the chase open

Jonny Bairstow’s intent after the powerplay was the turning point, as he and James Wharton turned a manageable target into a stress-free finish. Yorkshire won by seven wickets with 21 balls remaining, cruising to 169/3 in 16.3 overs after Nottinghamshire’s 167/7 had briefly looked competitive on a decent batting surface.

Middle overs are the knockout

The game was decided between overs 7 and 15, when Yorkshire’s chase accelerated beyond Nottinghamshire’s control. After a steady 50/2 in the powerplay, Bairstow and Wharton tore through the middle phase at 11.2 an over, adding 112/1 and effectively ending the contest before the death overs arrived. Nottinghamshire, by contrast, lost momentum in their own middle overs: 74/4 at 7.4 an over, with wickets preventing any sustained surge.

Bairstow and Wharton set tone

Bairstow’s 83 off 47 was the innings that changed the evening, mixing power with smart targeting once the field spread. Wharton’s 55 off 41 played the perfect second hand, keeping the stand moving until the finish was inevitable. For Nottinghamshire, Benny Howell’s 31 off 13 provided late lift at the death, but it was never enough to offset a middle-overs slide and a chase dominated by one decisive partnership.

Pre-match form flips on its head

Nottinghamshire came in with the stronger recent results and a home run that suggested they could dictate terms, especially with projections leaning their way. But the match-up that mattered was Yorkshire’s ability to control innings tempo: Jafer Chohan’s 2/26 squeezed Nottinghamshire’s options, and once the chase began, Nottinghamshire’s attack couldn’t apply the same brakes. Dillon Pennington’s expensive spell (2/63) summed up the problem—any small opening was immediately punished.