Trinbago Knight Riders are 5th in the CPL regular season on 4 points with a 2W-4L record and a -0.078 NRR. Guyana Amazon Warriors are 4th on 6 points at 3W-0L with a +2.991 NRR and are currently in the playoff zone. TKR’s last game ended in a 7-run D/L defeat despite posting 180/6. GAW’s last three results are all wins by 6 or 7 wickets.
Toss & Conditions
Head-to-Head
Across the last three meetings, TKR lead 2-1. In the most recent clash, TKR won by 3 wickets with 12 balls remaining after chasing down 130. The game was defined by a low target that kept the chase under control and allowed TKR to finish early. The wider pattern is tight: the previous meeting was decided with 1 ball remaining, and the one before that ended with TKR winning with 16 balls left.
Trinbago Knight Riders
TKR are 5th in the CPL regular season with 4 points, sitting outside the playoff zone. Their recent run has been uneven, with two losses in their last three games. The most telling result is the latest one: they made 180/6 but still lost by 7 runs via the D/L method.
Guyana Amazon Warriors
GAW are 4th in the CPL regular season with 6 points and are currently in the playoff zone. They are unbeaten at 3-0 and their recent wins have been controlled chases, all by 6 or 7 wickets. The clearest statement was the 7-wicket win with 61 balls remaining against Antigua & Barbuda Falcons.
Playing XI
Key Stats
Prediction
Current prediction, after the playing XI and toss
Models are split: the ML model leans TKR at 52%, but the model average favours GAW at 63% (range 61–72% across AI 1/AI 2/Math). Bookmakers diverge from the ML lean and side with GAW at 52% (1.80) vs TKR at 48% (1.95). Key stats favour GAW 4-2, driven by their stronger season position, NRR, and Elo edge, while TKR’s main counter is a 2-1 edge in the last three head-to-heads. This comes down to whether GAW’s unbeaten momentum overrides TKR’s recent matchup advantage.
Superseded: preliminary prediction, before the XI and toss
Preliminary prediction — calculated before the playing XI and toss were known. It is recalculated 5–30 minutes before the start, once the lineups and toss are confirmed.
All four models favour GAW, with an average win probability of 64% (range 58–73%). Bookmakers also lean GAW, pricing them at 52% (1.80) vs TKR at 48% (1.95). Key stats favour GAW 4-1 overall, driven by their stronger season position and momentum, while TKR’s main counter is a 2-1 edge in the last three head-to-heads. The match likely turns on whether GAW’s unbeaten run holds against a TKR side that has mixed results and a recent heavy loss.
Hetmyer’s 43-ball hurricane
Shimron Hetmyer turned a quiet powerplay into a statement innings, smashing 111 off 43 to drag Guyana Amazon Warriors to a DLS win by 9 runs. After GAW stumbled to 31/2 in the first six, Hetmyer flipped the tempo in the middle overs, and even TKR’s blistering reply — sparked by Alex Hales and Nicholas Pooran — couldn’t quite reel it back in once the chase hit its first real speed bump.
Middle overs decide it
The game swung hardest in the middle phase. GAW exploded from 31/2 in the powerplay to 154/2 through the middle overs, a surge built around the 79-run stand between Hetmyer and Mohammad Nabi. TKR, by contrast, were 67/2 early but slid to 105/5 in the middle, losing three wickets for 38 as the required rate climbed and shot-making got riskier.
Nabi’s spell, Hales’ burst
Hetmyer was the difference-maker, but Nabi’s 3/20 in three overs gave the innings its shape: he broke the chase’s rhythm and forced TKR into higher-risk options. Hales’ 55 off 24 and Pooran’s 43 off 16 briefly put TKR ahead of the asking rate, yet the wickets in the middle overs meant their finishers were left with too much to do against a set field and a clear plan.
Form lines up with finish
Pre-match numbers leaned toward GAW’s momentum and season edge, and the match followed that script once the dust settled after TKR’s fast start. TKR’s recent head-to-head comfort showed in the way Hales attacked from ball one, but GAW’s steadier form told when the chase needed a calm over or two. Even in a shortened contest where one over can flip everything, GAW owned the decisive phase rather than relying on a late scramble.






