Toss & Conditions

The game is on pitch No. 5, the same strip where 228 played 229 in the RR vs SRH match. Dew played a big part in the second innings of that game, and this is also a night match.

Head-to-Head

RR lead the last three meetings 2-1. In the most recent meeting last season, RR beat LSG by 40 runs after bowling LSG out for 119. The match turned on LSG being dismissed for 119 in the chase. Across the last three games, results have swung between a tight finish and clear RR wins.

LSLucknow Super Giants 119/10

RRRajasthan Royals 159/6

2026-04-22 · RR won by 40 runs

RRRajasthan Royals 178/5

LSLucknow Super Giants 180/5

2025-04-19 · LSG won by 2 runs

LSLucknow Super Giants 196/5

RRRajasthan Royals 199/3

2024-04-27 · RR won by 7 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

Rajasthan Royals

RR are 5th in the IPL regular season with 12 points. They are on a three-match losing streak, including two defeats to Delhi Capitals in their last three games. Their most recent loss was a close finish, going down by 5 wickets with 4 balls remaining.

RRRajasthan Royals 193/8

DCDelhi Capitals 197/5

2026-05-17 · DC won by 5 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

RRRajasthan Royals 152/10

GTGujarat Titans 229/4

2026-05-09 · GT won by 77 runs

RRRajasthan Royals 225/6

DCDelhi Capitals 226/3

2026-05-01 · DC won by 7 wickets (with 5 balls remaining)

Lucknow Super Giants

LSG are 10th in the IPL regular season with 8 points. They have won 2 of their last 3 matches, including a 7-wicket win over CSK with 20 balls remaining. Their last three results include one narrow defeat to CSK by 5 wickets with 4 balls remaining.

LSLucknow Super Giants 188/3

CSChennai Super Kings 187/5

2026-05-15 · LSG won by 7 wickets (with 20 balls remaining)

LSLucknow Super Giants 203/8

CSChennai Super Kings 208/5

2026-05-10 · CSK won by 5 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

LSLucknow Super Giants 209/3

RCRoyal Challengers Bengaluru 203/6

2026-05-07 · LSG won by 9 runs (DLS method)

Playing XI

News & Facts

Key Stats

Verdict

Models are split but lean RR on average at 54%, with three of four models backing RR while the Math model favours LSG. Bookmakers align with the lean to RR, pricing RR at 60% (1.60) vs LSG at 40% (2.35). Key stats favour RR 6-2, driven by points, NRR, Elo, and a 2-1 edge in the last three head-to-heads. The swing factors flagged in the data are RR’s 0% win rate in their last three matches versus LSG’s 2-from-3 run, plus the lineup-impact metric favouring LSG.

Suryavanshi blows the chase open

Vaibhav Suryavanshi’s clean, fearless hitting changed the mood of a daunting chase before it could settle into anxiety. After Lucknow Super Giants piled on 220/5, Rajasthan Royals kept pace from ball one and never let the required rate balloon, eventually winning by 7 wickets with five balls remaining. Even when LSG briefly sniffed an opening at the death, the damage had already been done by the time the chase entered its final two overs.

Middle overs decide everything

The decisive swing came in the middle phase, where Rajasthan’s chase accelerated rather than stabilised. RR went from 71/0 in the powerplay to 196/2 through the middle overs, scoring 125/2 at 12.5 an over and effectively cancelling out LSG’s flying start. LSG, by contrast, slowed sharply after their 83/0 powerplay, managing 99/2 in the middle at 9.7 an over; that drop-off meant Marsh’s platform didn’t become the 235-plus total it threatened to be.

Marsh shines, RR finish stronger

Mitchell Marsh’s 97 off 57 and Josh Inglis’ 60 off 29 powered LSG’s best stretch, especially in the first six overs. But Suryavanshi’s 93 off 38 was the innings that defined the night, turning a big target into a manageable equation. Dhruv Jurel’s role in the 105-run stand was the glue that kept the chase organised, while Yash Raj Punja’s 2/35 helped ensure LSG’s late-innings surge never fully arrived.

Form doubts, batting depth answers

Pre-match numbers leaned Rajasthan despite poor recent form, and this game showed why: their batting had the gears to absorb an opponent’s best phase. LSG’s lineup edge and early-overs punch did appear, but the matchup flipped once the ball softened and Rajasthan could target the change bowlers. The chase also exposed how quickly a powerplay advantage can fade if the middle overs don’t keep the same intent.