Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

The Blaze have won the last two head-to-head meetings. In the most recent meeting last season, The Blaze won by five wickets with 10 balls remaining after chasing down a target of 154. The finish was controlled enough that they still had balls in hand at the end of the chase. The pattern across these two games is consistent: The Blaze have found a way to close out chases against Lancashire.

TBThe Blaze W 153/5

LALancashire W 150/9

2025-06-19 · TB-W won by 5 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

LALancashire W 169/4

TBThe Blaze W 170/3

2025-05-31 · TB-W won by 7 wickets (with 5 balls remaining)

Lancashire W

Lancashire Women are 7th in the T20BW regular season with 0 points, sitting outside the playoff zone. Their latest match was a high-scoring loss to Surrey, where they couldn’t overhaul the chase despite getting close. The recent picture is tight margins: a tie against Somerset and a last-ball win over Essex sit alongside that defeat.

LALancashire W 185/7

SUSurrey W 191/4

2026-05-22 · SUR-W won by 6 wickets (with 7 balls remaining)

LALancashire W 114/7

SOSomerset W 114/6

2025-07-18 · Match tied

LALancashire W 109/6

ESEssex W 107/10

2025-07-16 · LAN-W won by 4 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

The Blaze W

The Blaze Women are 5th in the T20BW regular season with 4 points, currently in the playoff zone. Their latest match was a four-wicket win with three balls remaining against Yorkshire, another chase finished under pressure. Across their last three matches, they’ve mixed one defeat with two wins, including a 27-run victory over Hampshire.

TBThe Blaze W 181/6

YOYorkshire W 179/5

2026-05-22 · TB-Women won by 4 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

TBThe Blaze W 143/10

WAWarwickshire W 163/8

2025-07-27 · WAR-W won by 20 runs

TBThe Blaze W 164/5

HAHampshire W 137/4

2025-07-18 · TB-W won by 27 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour The Blaze, with the average projection at TB-W 62% (range 56–68%). Bookmakers agree, pricing TB-W at 59% (1.56) vs LAN-W at 41% (2.24). Key stats lean The Blaze 5–2, driven by the standings edge and recent head-to-head control. The game likely turns on whether Lancashire can disrupt The Blaze’s chase patterns that have decided the last two meetings.

Beaumont sets, Bryce seals

Tammy Beaumont’s powerplay burst gave The Blaze the momentum they needed, and Kathryn Bryce later steadied the chase when it threatened to unravel. Chasing 163, The Blaze were forced to scrap through a tense final stretch, but they got home by three wickets with three balls remaining, refusing to let Lancashire’s late surge with the bat become the match-defining story.

Middle-overs wobble, not collapse

The chase was shaped most by the middle overs: The Blaze went from 53/1 in the powerplay to losing five wickets in the mid phase, scoring 77/5 as Lancashire finally found some grip through Fritha Morris. That cluster of wickets briefly flipped the pressure, but crucially it didn’t drag the run rate out of reach. With only 33 needed in the last five overs, Bryce ensured the required rate never spiked, keeping the finish within one clean over rather than a last-ball gamble.

Lanning’s rescue, Ballinger’s squeeze

Meg Lanning was the innings: her 81 off 49 transformed a collapsing start into a platform, and her 98-run stand with Ailsa Lister (39 off 28) powered a 46-run death phase. But Grace Ballinger’s 2/14 kept Lancashire from running away with it, and Beaumont’s 186 strike-rate in the first six overs set the chase’s tone. Morris’ 3/25 created late nerves, yet Bryce’s 70-run partnership with Beaumont proved the decisive bridge to the line.

Pre-match edge shows in chase

The pre-game lean towards The Blaze was rooted in their ability to control chases and dictate tempo, and that pattern largely held. Lancashire’s best chance was to disrupt early, yet The Blaze’s 53/1 powerplay meant they were playing from in front even when wickets fell later. Lancashire, by contrast, had to rebuild from 33/4; that recovery was outstanding, but it also left them defending a total that needed early strikes to protect it.