Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Lancashire have won 2 of the last 3 meetings with Nottinghamshire. In the most recent clash, Nottinghamshire edged it by 4 wickets with 28 balls remaining after Lancashire were bowled out. The defining detail was Lancashire losing all 10 wickets, leaving a chase that Nottinghamshire finished with time to spare. Across the last three games, results have swung both ways, with Lancashire taking two wins but Nottinghamshire proving they can close tight finishes.

NONottinghamshire 127/6

LALancashire 126/10

2025-07-18 · NOT won by 4 wickets (with 28 balls remaining)

LALancashire 216/3

NONottinghamshire 169/10

2025-05-31 · LAN won by 47 runs

LALancashire 136/2

NONottinghamshire 131/7

2024-07-17 · LAN won by 8 wickets (with 33 balls remaining)

Lancashire

Lancashire are 18th in the T20 Blast regular season on 0 points (0W-1L). Their latest match was a heavy defeat, losing by 59 runs after being bowled out while chasing Surrey’s 213/6. In their recent run of results, they have mixed a narrow chase win with two losses where the batting ended all out.

LALancashire 154/10

SUSurrey 213/6

2026-05-22 · SUR won by 59 runs

LALancashire 159/10

SOSomerset 182/7

2025-09-13 · SOM won by 23 runs

LALancashire 156/7

KEKent 153/10

2025-09-06 · LAN won by 3 wickets (with 9 balls remaining)

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire are 14th in the T20 Blast regular season on 0 points (0W-1L). Their latest match was a chase that got away, losing by 7 wickets with 21 balls remaining after posting 167/7 against Yorkshire. Recent results include being bowled out in a 45-run defeat, but also a tight head-to-head win over Lancashire.

NONottinghamshire 167/7

YOYorkshire 169/3

2026-05-22 · YOR won by 7 wickets (with 21 balls remaining)

NONottinghamshire 127/6

LALancashire 126/10

2025-07-18 · NOT won by 4 wickets (with 28 balls remaining)

NONottinghamshire 161/10

WOWorcestershire 206/7

2025-07-17 · WOR won by 45 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Lancashire, with the average probability at 56% (range 54–60%). Bookmakers diverge, pricing Lancashire at 47% (1.98) vs Nottinghamshire at 53% (1.80). Key stats lean Lancashire 4-2, driven by the head-to-head edge and stronger middle and death-overs economy. The match likely turns on whether Lancashire can avoid another all-out batting collapse and whether Nottinghamshire can convert their better NRR and powerplay control into a complete 20-over performance.

Hartley snaps the chase

Tom Hartley’s left-arm spin was the moment Nottinghamshire couldn’t recover from, as Lancashire defended 208 with a 36-run win. After the visitors flew to 60/1 in the powerplay and briefly had the chase on script, Hartley’s spell in the middle overs dragged the scoring rate down and forced risk. By the time Nottinghamshire tried to reset, the required rate had ballooned and wickets had already done the damage.

Middle overs meltdown

The game was decided between overs 7 and 16, when Nottinghamshire lost the match in a heap: 64/7 in the middle phase. From 60/1, they slid to 124/8, unable to line up Hartley and repeatedly mis-hitting into the longer pockets. Lancashire, by contrast, kept their innings intact through the middle (84/2) and then detonated at the death, smashing 69/1 at 16.6 an over to turn a good total into a daunting one.

McDermott and Hurst set it

Ben McDermott’s 64 off 27 gave Lancashire lift-off, and Matthew Hurst’s 57 off 40 anchored the innings long enough for the finishers to swing freely. Keaton Jennings’ 51 off 31 ensured the run rate never dipped for long. But the defining performance was Hartley’s 3/18 in three overs, the spell that turned Nottinghamshire’s 60/1 start into a chase that never truly restarted.

Pre-match themes play out

The build-up suggested Lancashire’s edge would come from controlling the middle and closing out the back end, and that’s exactly where the gap opened. Nottinghamshire’s early control with ball and bat was real, but their advantage in the powerplay didn’t translate into a complete 20-over chase once spin and matchups came into play. Lancashire also avoided the feared collapse: they absorbed the quieter middle and still had hitters in to cash in late.