Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Sussex lead the last three head-to-heads 2-1. In the most recent meeting, Kent won a tight chase, getting over the line by 2 wickets with 3 balls remaining. The game was defined by Kent holding their nerve in the final moments of the pursuit rather than letting the chase slip. Across the last three, results have swung between a nail-biter and heavy Sussex wins, so the matchup has shown both volatility and Sussex’s higher hit rate.

SUSussex 148/10

KEKent 151/8

2025-07-09 · KEN won by 2 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

KEKent 161/10

SUSussex 195/9

2025-07-04 · SUS won by 34 runs

KEKent 115/10

SUSussex 203/4

2024-07-12 · SUS won by 88 runs

Kent

Kent are 8th in the T20B Regular Season with 4 points, a 1W-0L record, and +1.350 NRR. Their latest result was a 27-run win over Middlesex after posting 208/6, a statement of batting depth and scoreboard pressure. Recent results also include a 7-wicket win over Essex, showing they can finish chases cleanly when set up.

KEKent 208/6

MIMiddlesex 181/8

2026-05-22 · KEN won by 27 runs

KEKent 153/10

LALancashire 156/7

2025-09-06 · LAN won by 3 wickets (with 9 balls remaining)

KEKent 173/3

ESEssex 172/6

2025-07-18 · KEN won by 7 wickets (with 16 balls remaining)

Sussex

Sussex are 7th in the T20B Regular Season with 4 points, a 1W-0L record, and +2.450 NRR. Their latest result was a 6-wicket chase win over Essex with 24 balls remaining, a clear sign of control in a high-scoring pursuit. They also have a recent last-ball chase win over Gloucestershire, but that sits alongside a narrow 7-run loss to Surrey.

SUSussex 192/4

ESEssex 191/5

2026-05-22 · SUS won by 6 wickets (with 24 balls remaining)

SUSussex 197/7

SUSurrey 204/5

2025-07-18 · SUR won by 7 runs

SUSussex 189/6

GLGloucestershire 185/5

2025-07-17 · SUS won by 4 wickets (with 0 ball remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Sussex, with the average leaning SUS 55% to KEN 45%. Bookmakers are more cautious, showing near parity at KEN 49% (1.90) vs SUS 51% (1.87). Key stats lean Sussex 4-2, driven by the better NRR, stronger recent head-to-head record, and an edge in the middle and death overs. Kent’s counterweight is a small Elo edge and better powerplay economy, so the game likely turns on who controls the back end.

Forrester’s double act seals it

Dian Forrester turned a Sussex sprint into a Kent win, first by ripping through the middle overs and then by closing out the chase with clean hitting. Sussex still posted 197/6, but Kent never let the required rate run away, finishing 199/3 in 18.2 overs to win by seven wickets with 10 balls in hand. Even after Sussex’s blistering start, Kent’s chase felt increasingly controlled once Crawley settled and Forrester joined him.

Sussex’s middle-overs stall

The match swung in the middle phase, where Sussex went from runaway to restrained. After Daniel Hughes and Tom Clark blasted 92 without loss in the powerplay, Kent’s bowlers hit the hard lengths and took pace off: Sussex managed only 67/4 through the middle overs at 6.7 an over. That slowdown meant their late push was limited to 37/2 at the death, leaving a total that looked big but not untouchable on a true surface.

Crawley anchors, Forrester finishes

Zak Crawley’s 75 off 41 was the chase’s spine, absorbing the early wicket and keeping Kent ahead of the asking rate without reckless risk. His 80-run partnership with Forrester gave Kent the platform to attack late rather than scramble. Forrester’s impact was match-defining: 3/24 in four overs to derail Sussex after the powerplay, then a 35 off 18 that ensured Kent’s finish was emphatic, not anxious. Tom Clark’s powerplay assault briefly threatened to blow the game open, but Kent’s response was sharper.

Pre-match edge, in reverse

The build-up pointed to Sussex’s stronger recent profile and their ability to boss the back end, but it was Kent who owned the key moments after the powerplay. Sussex’s early dominance didn’t translate because the innings became over-reliant on Clark’s 80 off 29, and wickets arrived just as they tried to reset. Kent, expected to be tested at the death, instead surged there — 41 without loss at 17.6 an over — turning a chase into a sprint.