Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three head-to-heads, MI New York lead 2 wins to 1. The most recent meeting was a last-ball finish: Seattle Orcas won by 3 wickets with 0 balls remaining after chasing 237/4. That game turned into a high-scoring chase where MINY still posted 237/4 and SO had to get home under maximum pressure at the end. The broader pattern is narrow margins: even MINY’s other win in the last three came with only 6 balls remaining.

SOSeattle Orcas 238/7

MIMI New York 237/4

2025-06-28 · SO won by 3 wickets (with 0 ball remaining)

MIMI New York 203/3

SOSeattle Orcas 200/5

2025-06-19 · MINY won by 7 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

MIMI New York 111/4

SOSeattle Orcas 108/10

2024-07-05 · MINY won by 6 wickets (with 34 balls remaining)

Seattle Orcas

Seattle Orcas are #2 on 6 points in the MLC regular season and currently in the playoff zone. Their last three games include two wins, highlighted by an 88-run victory over Washington Freedom that showed their ceiling when they get ahead early. The one setback in that run was a 2-wicket loss with 2 balls remaining, underlining how tight their recent outcomes have been.

SOSeattle Orcas 154/7

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 134/8

2026-06-28 · SO won by 20 runs

SOSeattle Orcas 191/10

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 192/8

2026-06-27 · SFU won by 2 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

SOSeattle Orcas 227/6

WSWashington Freedom 139/10

2026-06-26 · SO won by 88 runs

MI New York

MI New York are #5 on 4 points in the MLC regular season. Their last three matches show a mixed run, but the clearest statement was a 41-run win over Los Angeles Knight Riders where they bowled LAKR out for 103. They also have a recent loss by 6 wickets with 6 balls remaining, so their form has swung between control and being chased down efficiently.

MIMI New York 144/6

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 103/10

2026-06-27 · MINY won by 41 runs

MIMI New York 127/9

TSTexas Super Kings 132/4

2026-06-26 · TSK won by 6 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

MIMI New York 162/2

TSTexas Super Kings 158/10

2026-06-22 · MINY won by 8 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

Models are split: the average call is 50%-50, with individual picks ranging from SO 46–54% and MINY 46–54%. Bookmakers lean Seattle Orcas, pricing SO at 54% (1.75) vs MINY at 46% (2.05). Key stats overall favour MINY 5-2, driven by edges in head-to-head, Elo, and powerplay/middle-overs economy, while SO’s positives include points and a death-overs economy edge. With the last H2H decided on the final ball, the late-overs execution and who controls the middle phase look like the swing factors.

De Kock builds the buffer

Quinton de Kock set up the match with a composed 61 off 46, giving MI New York the platform they needed before the finish got messy. Seattle Orcas, sparked by Marcus Stoinis, dragged the chase into the final overs, but MINY held their nerve to win by five runs. With wickets falling late in both innings, it became a game of small margins: one clean over, one mistimed hit, one extra boundary.

Powerplay gap decides it

The clearest difference came in the first six overs. MINY surged to 51/1 at 8.5 an over, while Seattle crawled to 29/2, immediately turning a tricky chase into a steep one. Even though the middle overs were broadly similar (MINY 60/3, SO 58/4), the Orcas were always chasing the powerplay deficit. Their late burst of 40 in the last four overs kept the contest alive, but it was compensating for the damage already done.

Stoinis’ all-round near-heist

Stoinis was the standout across both innings: 3/14 in four overs strangled MINY’s momentum, then his 36 off 31 anchored Seattle’s best resistance. Romario Shepherd’s 3/16 was just as decisive, repeatedly breaking partnerships and forcing the Orcas to reset. De Kock’s 61 was the innings that mattered most, though — it created the cushion MINY needed to survive a nervy death phase of 21/4.

Pre-match split, match went early

Forecasts leaned slightly Seattle, banking on tighter middle-overs control and late-overs execution. Instead, MINY flipped the script by winning the powerplay decisively, with de Kock’s tempo and a 47-run stand with Nicholas Pooran taking the new ball out of the contest. Seattle’s strengths did show up later — Stoinis’ spell and a late hitting push — but starting at 4.8 an over in the powerplay left too much for the endgame.