Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, MI New York lead Texas Super Kings 2-1. In the most recent clash, MINY won by 8 wickets with 14 balls remaining after restricting TSK to 158 all out and then finishing the chase at 162/2. The defining feature was TSK being bowled out, which left MINY a controlled chase. The broader pattern is mixed, with TSK also owning a 39-run win in this three-game sample.

TSTexas Super Kings 158/10

MIMI New York 162/2

2026-06-22 · MINY won by 8 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 166/5

MIMI New York 172/3

2025-07-12 · MINY won by 7 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 223/4

MIMI New York 184/9

2025-06-30 · TSK won by 39 runs

MI New York

MI New York are 4th in the MLC regular season with 2 points (1W-1L) and are currently in the playoff zone. Their recent results swing sharply: they followed a 30-run loss to Washington Freedom by beating TSK with an 8-wicket chase finished with 14 balls remaining.

MIMI New York 162/2

TSTexas Super Kings 158/10

2026-06-22 · MINY won by 8 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

MIMI New York 215/6

WSWashington Freedom 245/5

2026-06-21 · WSF won by 30 runs

MIMI New York 180/7

WSWashington Freedom 175/5

2025-07-14 · MINY won by 5 runs

Texas Super Kings

Texas Super Kings are 3rd in the MLC regular season with 4 points (2W-2L) and are currently in the playoff zone. Their last three games show volatility, including a head-to-head loss to MINY followed by a 22-run win over San Francisco Unicorns in their most recent match.

TSTexas Super Kings 161/8

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 139/10

2026-06-25 · TSK won by 22 runs

TSTexas Super Kings 158/10

MIMI New York 162/2

2026-06-22 · MINY won by 8 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 152/9

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 153/3

2026-06-20 · SFU won by 7 wickets (with 13 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour MI New York, with MINY projected at 54–58% and a 56% average. Bookmakers align with the models, pricing MINY at 56% (1.70) vs TSK at 44% (2.10). Key stats lean MINY 5-3, driven by the edge in the last-three head-to-heads and stronger recent winrate. The swing factor is whether TSK’s points and Elo edge translates on the day against a MINY side that has recently controlled this matchup.

Ferreira’s squeeze in the middle

Donovan Ferreira’s four overs didn’t just take wickets; they removed MI New York’s momentum at the exact point their innings needed stability. After MINY’s brisk start, Texas Super Kings kept them on a short leash through the middle and then chased 128 with enough calm to win by six wickets with six balls left, even after a couple of brief stutters.

MINY’s middle overs collapse

The game pivoted in MINY’s middle phase: 38/4 at 3.8 an over after racing to 50/3 in the powerplay. Ferreira’s 3/14 was the headline, but the effect was collective—dots, mistimed hits, and constant scoreboard pressure. MINY’s best stand was only 34, and while they lifted late with 39 in the last five, 127 still felt 15-20 short on a surface where a set batter could cash in.

Mukkamalla holds, Ferreira strikes

Ferreira was the match’s decisive figure, turning a competitive powerplay into a below-par total with three key breakthroughs. Saiteja Mukkamalla then played the chase the way TSK needed: 38 off 37 to absorb the quieter overs and keep wickets in hand. Even when MINY’s Rushil Ugarkar (2/16) created a flicker of pressure, TSK’s unbeaten 33-run finish at 11 an over in the death overs shut the door.

Why the script flipped

Pre-match numbers leaned MINY: better recent form, a head-to-head edge, and projections built around their ability to control matchups. But those advantages depended on batting depth and a smoother middle-overs passage. Instead, their innings followed the one pattern that makes any favourite vulnerable—early intent, then a long squeeze. TSK, despite a quieter powerplay at 39/1, stayed in touch and never let the required rate spike beyond reach.