Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Surrey W have won the last three meetings against Warwickshire W. In the most recent clash, Surrey won by five wickets with 20 balls remaining after chasing down the target. The finish was controlled enough that Surrey still had more than three overs in hand when they got there. Across these three games, the pattern has been one-way: Surrey keep finding a way past Warwickshire.

SUSurrey W 154/5

WAWarwickshire W 153/9

2025-07-27 · SUR-W won by 5 wickets (with 20 balls remaining)

SUSurrey W 204/5

WAWarwickshire W 179/9

2025-07-18 · SUR-W win by 25 runs

WAWarwickshire W 139/10

SUSurrey W 140/6

2025-07-09 · SUR-W won by 4 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

Warwickshire W

Warwickshire W are 9th in the T20BW regular season with 0 points and a 0W-6L record. Their last three matches have all been defeats, including a five-wicket loss to Somerset W where the chase fell short with 22 balls still remaining for the opposition. The run of results points to a side struggling to close out games.

WAWarwickshire W 123/8

SOSomerset W 126/5

2026-06-07 · SOM-W won by 5 wickets (with 22 balls remaining)

WAWarwickshire W 138/5

TBThe Blaze W 151/7

2026-06-05 · TB-W won by 11 runs

WAWarwickshire W 113/10

DUDurham W 140/5

2026-05-29 · DUR-W won by 27 runs

Surrey W

Surrey W are 2nd in the T20BW regular season with 19 points and are currently in the playoff zone. Their last three matches include a five-wicket win over Essex W, a four-wicket loss to Somerset W, and a drawn game with Hampshire W. Even with that one defeat, they have kept stacking results that preserve their top-two position.

SUSurrey W 149/5

ESEssex W 145/7

2026-06-05 · SUR-W won by 5 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

SUSurrey W 153/5

SOSomerset W 154/6

2026-05-31 · SOM-W won by 4 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

SUSurrey W 121/10

HAHampshire W 121/8

2026-05-29 · Match Drawn

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Surrey W, with the model average at 73% for Surrey. Bookmakers agree, pricing Surrey W at 65% (1.44) vs Warwickshire W at 35% (2.60). Key stats lean Surrey 5-1 overall, driven by the points gap, NRR edge, Elo advantage, and a 3-0 head-to-head run. Warwickshire’s main counter-signal is a better death-overs economy, but they need it to translate into a full 20-over performance.

Taylor triggers the collapse

Mary Taylor’s spell was the snap that broke the chase, turning Surrey’s steady start into a scramble. After Warwickshire posted 172 for 5, Surrey were 48/0 and briefly looked in touch, but once Taylor struck, wickets fell in clusters and the required rate ballooned. Surrey were eventually bowled out for 130, Warwickshire sealing a 42-run win that swung hard on one decisive passage.

Middle overs: 8 down

The game was won in Surrey’s middle overs, where they lost 8 wickets for 59. From 48/0 in the powerplay, Surrey slid into a spiral of mistimed hits and pressure-induced errors, never recovering their shape in the chase. Warwickshire, by contrast, kept their innings intact through the same phase: 71/2 in the middle overs after racing to 65/0, which meant they could attack again at the death and finish with 36/3 at 9 an over.

Freeborn-Perrin set the tone

Abigail Freeborn’s 51 off 33 gave Warwickshire lift-off, and her 85-run partnership with Davina Perrin (50 off 39) ensured the innings had both pace and depth. Taylor then cashed in with 3/24, repeatedly forcing Surrey to hit against the field. Alice Davidson-Richards’ 39 kept Surrey alive for a stretch, but the collapse around her left too much for the tail to chase.

Why Surrey’s edges vanished

Surrey came in with the stronger recent record and head-to-head momentum, and their powerplay batting reflected that early control. But the match-up flipped once the ball slowed and Warwickshire’s bowlers hit their lengths: the very area Warwickshire needed to sustain for 20 overs. Surrey’s chase became too dependent on one stand, and when the middle-order couldn’t absorb the squeeze, the pre-match advantages in form and rankings didn’t matter.