Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Warwickshire W have won the last two head-to-head meetings against Somerset W. In the most recent meeting last season, Warwickshire defended 149/8 and kept Somerset to 127/9 to win by 22 runs. The earlier meeting last season was even more one-sided, with Warwickshire winning by 69 runs after Somerset were bowled out for 103. The pattern across these results is Warwickshire repeatedly getting the better of Somerset in this matchup.

SOSomerset W 127/9

WAWarwickshire W 149/8

2025-07-11 · WAR-W won by 22 runs

WAWarwickshire W 172/9

SOSomerset W 103/10

2025-06-06 · WAR-W won by 69 runs

Warwickshire W

Warwickshire W are 9th in the T20BW regular season with 0 points. Their latest outing ended in a 7-wicket loss with 34 balls remaining after they made 164/8 and Essex W chased 166/3. In their last three matches overall, results have swung between a 20-run win and two narrow defeats.

WAWarwickshire W 164/8

ESEssex W 166/3

2026-05-22 · ESS-W won by 7 wickets (with 34 balls remaining)

WAWarwickshire W 153/9

SUSurrey W 154/5

2025-07-27 · SUR-W won by 5 wickets (with 20 balls remaining)

WAWarwickshire W 163/8

TBThe Blaze W 143/10

2025-07-27 · WAR-W won by 20 runs

Somerset W

Somerset W are 4th in the T20BW regular season with 2 points. Their most recent match was a tie after they made 159/6 and Hampshire W replied with 159/5. Across their last three matches, they have two ties and one 68-run loss.

SOSomerset W 159/6

HAHampshire W 159/5

2026-05-22 · Match tied

SOSomerset W 114/6

LALancashire W 114/7

2025-07-18 · Match tied

SOSomerset W 107/10

SUSurrey W 175/6

2025-07-13 · SUR-W won by 68 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models are in consensus for Warwickshire W, with the model average at 64% for WAR-W. Bookmakers also lean Warwickshire W, pricing WAR-W at 57% (1.64) vs SOM-W at 43% (2.10). Key stats narrowly favour Warwickshire 4-3, driven by the Elo edge and a clean sweep in the last two head-to-heads. The swing factors are whether Warwickshire can translate that matchup control into points, and whether Somerset can turn another tight finish into a win.

Learoyd anchors, Luff ignites

Anika Learoyd’s calm 66 set the tempo, but it was Sophie Luff’s counterpunch that turned the chase into Somerset’s night. After Warwickshire posted 166/9, Somerset never let the rate get away, finishing 167/3 in 18.2 overs to win by seven wickets with 10 balls in hand. Even when Warwickshire found a couple of wickets to create a flicker of doubt, the chase had already been shaped by a decisive middle-phase partnership.

Powerplay punch sets chase

The game was effectively won in Somerset’s powerplay. Chasing 8.35 an over, they raced to 68/1 (RR 11.0), immediately flipping the pressure back onto Warwickshire’s bowlers and shrinking the target into a manageable middle-overs exercise. Warwickshire had started similarly at 58/1, but Somerset’s early surge meant the asking rate never climbed into panic territory; by the time the chase entered the middle overs, Learoyd could bat time while Luff picked off the boundary balls.

Vukusic and the 84-run stand

Erin Vukusic’s 3/32 was the difference between a daunting 180 and a chaseable 167, striking often enough to prevent Warwickshire from building beyond Meg Austin’s 41. Then came the match-defining 84-run stand between Luff (53 off 31) and Learoyd, which spanned the heart of the innings and kept Somerset ahead of the game. Warwickshire’s best moments were brief — a couple of wickets in the middle — but Somerset’s top order had already done the heavy lifting.

Elo edge meets new reality

Pre-match numbers leaned heavily Warwickshire: recent head-to-head control, a powerplay bowling edge on paper, and Somerset arriving winless in three. But this match ran against those trends because Somerset won the most volatile phase — the first six overs — and then controlled the chase with a single, long partnership. Warwickshire’s innings also didn’t cash in on their own fast start; a mid-overs slide (76/4) left them defending a total that required near-perfect execution.