Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last two meetings, it’s 1-1. The most recent clash was decided on the final ball, with Somerset winning by 4 wickets with 1 ball remaining. It was a near-identical finish on the scoreboard, with Somerset chasing down 191/6 after Warwickshire made 190/6. The earlier meeting went the other way, with Warwickshire winning by 4 runs via the D/L method, underlining how tight this matchup has been recently.

SOSomerset 191/6

WAWarwickshire 190/6

2025-09-06 · SOM won by 4 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

SOSomerset 120/7

WAWarwickshire 107/4

2020-09-04 · WAR won by 4 runs (D/L method)

Warwickshire

Warwickshire are 16th in the T20B Regular Season with 0 points from a 0W-1L start. Their latest outing was a heavy 47-run loss in which they were bowled out for 74. In their last three matches overall, they have one win and two defeats, with results swinging between a big win and a sharp collapse.

WAWarwickshire 74/10

GLGloucestershire 121/10

2026-05-22 · GLO won by 47 runs

WAWarwickshire 190/6

SOSomerset 191/6

2025-09-06 · SOM won by 4 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

WAWarwickshire 233/5

DEDerbyshire 106/10

2025-07-18 · WAR won by 127 runs

Somerset

Somerset are 4th in the T20B Regular Season with 4 points and a 1W-0L record. They won their most recent match by 7 wickets with 22 balls remaining, chasing down 158 after bowling Hampshire out. Their last three matches are all wins, including two tight chases and one more comfortable finish.

SOSomerset 160/3

HAHampshire 158/10

2026-05-22 · SOM won by 7 wickets (with 22 balls remaining)

SOSomerset 195/4

HAHampshire 194/6

2025-09-13 · SOM won by 6 wickets (with 6 balls remaiing)

SOSomerset 182/7

LALancashire 159/10

2025-09-13 · SOM won by 23 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Somerset, with the model average at SOM 66% (WAR 34%). Bookmakers agree, pricing SOM at 61% (1.53) vs WAR at 39% (2.38). Key stats lean strongly to Somerset at 7-0 overall, driven by the gap in points, net run rate, Elo, and recent win-rate. The match narrative hinges on whether WAR can avoid another batting collapse and whether SOM’s stronger overall control continues.

Rew’s chase-defining burst

James Rew didn’t just pace Somerset’s reply, he detonated it. After Warwickshire posted a competitive 189/5, Rew’s clean striking and calm rotation kept the asking rate in check even when wickets threatened to slow momentum. The decisive push came as he surged through the middle overs, turning a chase that could have tightened into a finish with 10 balls still unused as Somerset won by 7 wickets.

Middle overs break Warwickshire

The match swung in Somerset’s middle phase, where they scored 118/1 at 11.8 an over. That was the difference: Warwickshire’s own middle overs were solid (98/3), but not game-breaking, and Somerset simply went harder for longer. By the time the chase entered the last five overs, the target had been reduced to a formality, with Warwickshire’s bowlers unable to find a sustained squeeze after the powerplay stayed level.

Rew and Abell set tempo

Rew was the obvious match-winner, mixing power with smart placement to keep boundaries ticking. Tom Abell’s support mattered just as much in context: his presence allowed Rew to attack without gambling, and their 106-run partnership effectively ended the contest. For Warwickshire, Hain’s innings gave them a defendable total, but Somerset’s top order ensured it was never quite enough.

Pre-match edge becomes control

Somerset arrived in better form and it showed in how they managed the key passage of the game. Warwickshire avoided a collapse and built around Sam Hain’s 54, yet their best stand was only 44, leaving them to rely on late hitting rather than a dominant platform. Somerset, by contrast, produced the kind of controlled aggression their recent run promised: one big partnership, minimal risk, and a chase that never spiralled.