Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last two meetings, Surrey W lead 2-0. In the most recent match, Surrey W chased down the target and won with 0 balls remaining, making it a last-ball finish. The game turned on Surrey getting over the line in a five-wicket chase under maximum pressure at the end. The broader pattern in this matchup is clear in the recent sample: Surrey have found ways to win both times.

HAHampshire W 155/4

SUSurrey W 156/5

2025-06-17 · SUR-W won by 5 wickets (with 0 ball remaining)

SUSurrey W 213/4

HAHampshire W 181/8

2025-06-05 · SUR-W won by 32 runs

Hampshire W

Hampshire W are 4th in the regular season on 6 points with a 1W-1L record and a -0.150 NRR. Their recent run has mixed outcomes, including a tied match followed by a loss and then a win. The most telling result is their latest outing, where they defended their total to beat Essex W by 23 runs.

HAHampshire W 160/7

ESEssex W 137/9

2026-05-26 · HAM-W won by 23 runs

HAHampshire W 146/8

DUDurham W 178/5

2026-05-24 · DUR-W won by 32 runs

HAHampshire W 159/5

SOSomerset W 159/6

2026-05-22 · Match tied

Surrey W

Surrey W are 1st in the regular season on 13 points with a 3W-0L record and a +1.392 NRR, currently in the playoff zone. Their recent form is a clean winning streak, with three straight victories. The most telling result is their latest win over Durham W, where they got home by 2 wickets with 20 balls remaining after bowling Durham out.

SUSurrey W 103/8

DUDurham W 102/10

2026-05-27 · SUR-W won by 2 wickets (with 20 balls remaining)

SUSurrey W 134/6

YOYorkshire W 133/10

2026-05-24 · SUR-W won by 4 wickets (with 27 balls remaining)

SUSurrey W 191/4

LALancashire W 185/7

2026-05-22 · SUR-W won by 6 wickets (with 7 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Surrey W, with the average projection at 72% for Surrey W. Bookmakers agree, pricing Hampshire W at 37% (2.46) vs Surrey W at 63% (1.49). Key stats lean heavily to Surrey W by an overall 6-1 margin; the table-leading points position and the recent head-to-head sweep are the clearest drivers. Hampshire’s main counter-signal in the data is the better powerplay economy, but Surrey’s broader edge is stronger across the comparison.

Wellington snaps the chase

Amanda-Jade Wellington’s spell didn’t just slow Surrey down — it changed the ending. After Surrey surged early, her 3/25 kept pulling the chase back into reach, and the last over became a straight shootout: 6 needed, wickets tumbling, and the final ball leaving the scores locked. Surrey were bowled out for 121 in 20 overs to match Hampshire’s 121/8, and neither side could land the finishing blow.

Middle overs flip the script

The game swung in Surrey’s middle overs with the bat, where a chase that began at 8.3 an over in the powerplay (50/1) suddenly stalled to 50/5 through the middle phase. That 10-over squeeze forced Surrey from control into calculation, and it meant the required rate never looked huge but always felt awkward as wickets kept interrupting momentum. Hampshire’s own innings had the opposite shape — slow early, then a lift late — which made the tie possible.

Harman’s burst, ADR’s anchor

Nancy Harman’s 43 off 26 rescued Hampshire from a 19/2 powerplay and, alongside Rhianna Southby in a best stand of 42, gave them something to defend. Alice Davidson-Richards’ 40 off 38 provided Surrey’s calm amid the wobble, but the chase needed one decisive hit that never came. Wellington was the closer, and Ryana Macdonald-Gay’s 2/19 kept Surrey in it long enough for the finish to become a tie.

Favourites stumble on the finish

Surrey arrived with the stronger recent run and the numbers to match, and their powerplay showed why. But the match-up that mattered most was at the death: Hampshire’s bowlers held their nerve when the chase should have been routine from 50/1. Surrey’s inability to convert a platform into a clean finish — against spin that attacked stumps and forced miscues — is what erased the pre-match gap.