Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Durham lead the last three meetings 2–1. The most recent clash was three weeks ago, and Durham won by 63 runs after posting 193/4 and bowling Yorkshire out for 130. That game was defined by Yorkshire being dismissed for 130 in a chase of 194. The pattern is not one-way: last season Yorkshire won by 7 wickets with 20 balls remaining after dismissing Durham for 107.

DUDurham 193/4

YOYorkshire 130/10

2025-06-20 · DUR won by 63 runs

YOYorkshire 128/10

DUDurham 131/4

2025-06-15 · DUR won by 6 wickets (with 12 balls remaining)

YOYorkshire 108/3

DUDurham 107/10

2024-07-11 · YOR won by 7 wickets (with 20 balls remaining)

Durham

Durham are 3rd in the T20B Regular Season on 8 points with a 2W-0L record. They have opened this campaign with two wins, including a tight 6-run result where they defended 203/8 after conceding 197/8. Their latest win was a chase finished with 24 balls remaining, showing they’ve won both by control and by tempo.

DUDurham 150/4

LELeicestershire 148/8

2026-05-24 · DUR won by 6 wickets (with 24 balls remaining)

DUDurham 203/8

DEDerbyshire 197/8

2026-05-22 · DUR won by 6 runs

DUDurham 195/6

HAHampshire 221/8

2025-09-05 · HAM won by 26 runs

Yorkshire

Yorkshire are 7th in the T20B Regular Season on 8 points with a 2W-0L record. They are on a three-match winning run in their last three games, and two of those wins were chases that went deep. Their latest result was a 2-wicket win with 4 balls remaining after conceding 194/4, a finish that underlined their ability to close under pressure.

YOYorkshire 195/8

DEDerbyshire 194/4

2026-05-24 · YOR won by 2 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

YOYorkshire 169/3

NONottinghamshire 167/7

2026-05-22 · YOR won by 7 wickets (with 21 balls remaining)

YOYorkshire 188/8

LELeicestershire 185/10

2025-07-18 · YOR won by 2 wickets (with 0 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Durham, with the average probability at 55% (range 54–56%). Bookmakers diverge from the models, pricing Durham at 47% (1.96) vs Yorkshire at 53% (1.76). Key stats lean Durham 5–1, driven by the NRR edge, Elo edge, and a 2–1 advantage in the last three head-to-heads. The swing factors are Yorkshire’s stronger powerplay economy versus Durham’s better middle and death-phase economy.

Wharton and Bairstow seize control

James Wharton’s counterpunch changed the mood of the night, turning Yorkshire’s early wobble into a total Durham couldn’t get near. After a quiet powerplay, Wharton found gears through the middle overs and, with Jonny Bairstow alongside, stitched the match’s defining stand of 68. Yorkshire finished 151/9 and, once Durham’s chase began to skid, the visitors kept the pressure on to win by 58 runs.

Middle overs set the trap

The game swung hardest in the middle phase of both innings. Yorkshire went from 30/2 in the powerplay to adding 81/2 in the middle overs at 8.1 an over, with Wharton repeatedly piercing the ring and forcing Durham off their lengths. Durham, by contrast, never found a stabilising partnership: from 41/4 in the powerplay they managed only 51/5 through the middle at 5.1 an over, leaving the required rate to balloon and wickets to keep falling.

Bess closes the door

Wharton’s 64 off 41 was the innings that mattered, and Bairstow’s 43 off 37 gave it shape when Yorkshire needed calm. Potts (3/20) briefly dragged the total back with a sharp four-over burst, but Durham’s response never matched it. Dominic Bess’ 2/13 in 3.2 overs was the chokehold: he conceded little, took wickets at the moment Durham needed release, and left Bedingham’s 41 off 29 as a lone, late resistance.

Durham’s edges never surfaced

Pre-match numbers leaned Durham: better season NRR, a slight Elo nudge, and recent head-to-head success, plus a matchup profile built on tighter middle and death bowling. But Yorkshire’s recent momentum travelled again, and their batting depth absorbed Durham’s best spells. Even with Matty Potts and Kasey Aldridge prising out 6 wickets between them, Wharton and Bairstow ensured Yorkshire had enough, then Durham’s own powerplay damage meant there was no platform for a chase.