Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last 1 meeting, Surrey W lead 1-0. The most recent clash was last season, and Surrey W won by 5 wickets with 9 balls remaining. Surrey’s chase was controlled enough to finish with time in hand. With only one recent result on record, the head-to-head trend is still thin.

SUSurrey W 159/5

ESEssex W 93/5

2025-07-06 · Match tied (D/L method)

ESEssex W 148/7

SUSurrey W 150/5

2025-06-15 · SUR-W won by 5 wickets (with 9 balls remaining)

Surrey W

Surrey W are 1st in the T20BW Regular Season on 15 points and are currently in the playoff zone. Their recent run has mixed a narrow win with a draw and then a close loss decided with 3 balls left. The most telling result is that last defeat, where they were edged out in the final moments.

SUSurrey W 153/5

SOSomerset W 154/6

2026-05-31 · SOM-W won by 4 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

SUSurrey W 121/10

HAHampshire W 121/8

2026-05-29 · Match Drawn

SUSurrey W 103/8

DUDurham W 102/10

2026-05-27 · SUR-W won by 2 wickets (with 20 balls remaining)

Essex W

Essex W are 3rd in the T20BW Regular Season on 13 points and are currently in the playoff zone. They’ve responded to a 23-run loss by putting together two straight wins, including a 3-run finish under pressure. Their latest chase was efficient enough to close the game with 13 balls unused.

ESEssex W 132/4

LALancashire W 128/8

2026-05-31 · ESS-W won by 6 wickets (with 13 balls remaining)

ESEssex W 146/7

YOYorkshire W 143/10

2026-05-29 · ESS-W won by 3 runs

ESEssex W 137/9

HAHampshire W 160/7

2026-05-26 · HAM-W won by 23 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models are in consensus for Surrey W, with the average probability at 66% (range 64–69%). Bookmakers agree, pricing Surrey W at 67% (1.38) vs Essex W at 33% (2.78). Key stats favour Surrey W 6-1, driven by the overall table edge, Elo advantage, and stronger death-overs economy. Essex’s powerplay economy edge and recent tight wins are the clearest path to flipping the script.

Spence’s counterpunch settles it

Jemima Spence walked in with Surrey W 34/2 after a cautious powerplay and immediately changed the mood, picking gaps and lifting the tempo to take the chase away from Essex W’s grip. Even with Grace Scrivens’ earlier 85 keeping Essex competitive, Surrey’s batting depth meant the target never felt out of reach for long, and they crossed with five wickets in hand and 14 balls remaining.

Middle overs swing Surrey’s way

The match was effectively decided in the middle phase of the chase: Surrey blasted 93/3 through the middle overs at 9.2 an over, a stark contrast to their powerplay rate of 5.7. That surge erased the early damage and forced Essex’s bowlers off their lengths, leaving too much to defend at the back end. Essex’s own innings told the opposite story — 64/2 in the middle overs at 6.4 — with Scrivens left carrying the scoring load as boundaries dried up.

Scrivens shines, Moore squeezes

Scrivens’ 85 off 63 was the innings of the night, mixing placement with clean striking to drag Essex to 145/7. Surrey’s key counter was Kalea Moore’s 2/19, which kept the total from ballooning when Scrivens threatened to run away with it. In the chase, Spence’s acceleration was the pivot, and Laura Harris’ 30 off 18 provided the finishing punch when Essex tried to claw back with late wickets.

Essex’s best route, briefly

Pre-match, Essex’s clearest path was to win the powerplay and control the early tempo — and they did start sharper, reaching 44/1 and then reducing Surrey to 34/2. But Surrey’s advantage was always likely to show later, where their control and hitting at the death has been stronger; they finished the chase at 13.2 an over in the closing phase, refusing to let a tight game develop.