Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Yorkshire lead the last three meetings 2-1. In the most recent clash, Lancashire won, with Yorkshire being bowled out and falling short in the chase. That game was defined by Yorkshire losing all 10 wickets, which left them without enough runs to defend. Across the last three, results have swung back and forth rather than one side dominating.

YOYorkshire 153/10

LALancashire 174/10

2025-07-17 · LAN won by 21 runs

LALancashire 217/7

YOYorkshire 236/6

2025-07-11 · YOR won by 19 runs

YOYorkshire 173/8

LALancashire 166/8

2024-06-20 · YOR won by 7 runs

Yorkshire

Yorkshire are 6th in the T20 Blast regular season with 12 points and a 3W-1L record. Their recent run has mixed a tight win with a late chase and a heavy setback last time out, when they were beaten by 56 runs. The clearest signal is that their last match ended with them being bowled out, exposing a batting floor that can be punished.

YOYorkshire 161/10

GLGloucestershire 217/6

2026-05-31 · GLO won by 56 runs

YOYorkshire 151/9

DUDurham 93/10

2026-05-29 · YOR won by 58 runs

YOYorkshire 195/8

DEDerbyshire 194/4

2026-05-24 · YOR won by 2 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

Lancashire

Lancashire are 13th in the T20 Blast regular season with 4 points and a 1W-2L record. Their form has swung from a 36-run win to a last-ball defeat, with the most telling result being the 2-wicket loss with 1 ball remaining that showed how fine their margins are. They’ve had one win in their last three, so they need a cleaner full-game performance.

LALancashire 145/9

LELeicestershire 146/8

2026-05-29 · LEI won by 2 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

LALancashire 208/4

NONottinghamshire 172/9

2026-05-25 · LAN won by 36 runs

LALancashire 154/10

SUSurrey 213/6

2026-05-22 · SUR won by 59 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Yorkshire, with the average prediction at 60% for YOR. Bookmakers are more cautious, showing near parity at YOR 51% (1.85) vs LAN 49% (1.90). Key stats lean heavily to Yorkshire overall, led by the standings gap and the recent head-to-head edge. The match likely turns on whether Yorkshire avoid another all-out batting collapse and whether Lancashire can reproduce the edge they found in the most recent derby win.

Chohan snaps the chase

Jafer Chohan’s burst of wickets was the moment the Roses game stopped being a contest and became a collapse. After Yorkshire posted 213 for 7, Lancashire briefly hinted at a counterpunch through Liam Livingstone, but Chohan’s strikes in the middle overs ripped out the spine of the chase. The innings ended at 107 in 14.3 overs, handing Yorkshire a 106-run win that felt decisive long before the final ball.

Yorkshire’s middle-overs squeeze

The match was won when Lancashire lost shape between the powerplay and the back end. They stumbled to 42 for 3 in the first six, then slid from a shaky platform to 65 for 7 in the middle phase, leaving too much for too few. With wickets gone, the boundary options dried up and the required rate ballooned; there was no death-overs surge at all. Yorkshire, by contrast, kept their innings intact through the middle and still had the hitters to cash in late.

Bairstow sets, Chohan finishes

Jonny Bairstow’s 73 off 44 was the innings that made Lancashire chase from behind, and his 103-run partnership with William Luxton provided the ballast before the late acceleration. James Wharton’s 35 off 16 supplied the extra punch that pushed the total beyond par. Then Moeen Ali’s 3 for 16 tightened the screws, before Chohan’s 4 for 17 delivered the knockout blows, leaving Livingstone’s 44 off 30 as the lone serious resistance.

Pre-match edge becomes control

The pre-game lean towards Yorkshire was built on recent form and a clear gap in overall performance indicators, but it still depended on avoiding the kind of batting wobble that can swing a derby. Instead, they batted with far more clarity: a fast powerplay (57 for 1) and a stable middle meant Lancashire never got the early inroads they needed. Once defending, Yorkshire’s superior match-ups showed up as pressure bowling rather than a shootout.