Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Surrey have won the last three meetings against Sussex. In the most recent clash, Surrey edged it by 7 runs in a tight chase, getting past 200 after Sussex posted 197/7. That game was defined by Surrey successfully overhauling a big target rather than defending one. The broader pattern is one-way: Surrey are 3-0 across the last three head-to-heads.

SUSussex 197/7

SUSurrey 204/5

2025-07-18 · SUR won by 7 runs

SUSurrey 210/6

SUSussex 162/10

2025-06-18 · SUR won by 48 runs

SUSussex 130/10

SUSurrey 184/8

2024-06-15 · SUR won by 54 runs

Sussex

Sussex are 13th in the T20B regular season on 8 points with a 2W-4L record and a -0.309 NRR. Their latest result was a controlled chase against Kent, winning by 7 wickets with 16 balls remaining. The recent run still includes back-to-back defeats before that win, including a 4-wicket loss after making 179 all out.

SUSussex 135/3

KEKent 133/8

2026-06-07 · SUS won by 7 wickets (with 16 balls remaining)

SUSussex 179/10

LELeicestershire 180/6

2026-06-05 · LEI won by 4 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

SUSussex 144/10

HAHampshire 173/6

2026-06-02 · HAM won by 29 runs

Surrey

Surrey are 6th in the T20B regular season with 12 points, a 3W-3L record, and a +0.516 NRR. Their last match was a 5-run defeat to Hampshire despite scoring 210/7, with the chase getting away after they conceded 215/5. They did respond earlier with a dominant 8-wicket win over Middlesex, finishing the chase with 35 balls remaining.

SUSurrey 210/7

HAHampshire 215/5

2026-06-05 · HAM won by 5 runs

SUSurrey 134/2

MIMiddlesex 129/7

2026-06-03 · SUR won by 8 wickets (with 35 balls remaining)

SUSurrey 116/10

KEKent 118/2

2026-05-31 · KEN won by 8 wickets (with 36 balls remaininig)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Surrey, with Surrey at 59–64% and a 61% average. Bookmakers align with that view, pricing Sussex at 40% (2.35) vs Surrey at 60% (1.57). Key stats favour Surrey 5-2, led by the points/NRR edge and a clean 3-0 record in the last three head-to-heads. Sussex’s main statistical angles are better powerplay and death economy, but Surrey’s overall profile still leads the call.

Jacks makes it a canter

Will Jacks’ clean hitting flipped the night from contest to cruise, as Surrey chased down 172 with 27 balls unused to beat Sussex by seven wickets. Sussex had briefly owned the evening through Harrison Ward and Daniel Hughes’ 94-run opening stand, but once that platform cracked, Surrey’s bowlers squeezed hard and Jacks ensured the chase never drifted into danger.

Sussex’s middle-overs collapse

The game swung in Sussex’s middle overs: from 80/0 in the powerplay to 149/5 across the middle phase, before the tail followed for 171 all out in 19.3. Surrey’s control came through wicket-taking rather than dot-ball strangulation — Reece Topley’s 3 for 16 in 2.3 overs and Tom Lawes’ 3 for 26 kept forcing new batters to start again, and Sussex’s death overs produced only 22 runs for five wickets.

Jacks and Philippe seize control

Jacks was the decisive figure, striking 74 off 40 and repeatedly winning the length battle once Sussex missed their yorkers. Josh Philippe’s 48 off 27 set the tempo, and their 97-run stand effectively ended the chase as a contest. For Sussex, Ward’s 49 off 29 gave them lift early, but Surrey’s key blows arrived just after the powerplay, when wickets began to fall and the innings never recovered.

Pre-match edge, on show

Surrey’s pre-match advantage was built on overall balance and recent head-to-head authority, and it played out once the new-ball gloss wore off. Sussex’s better powerplay numbers did surface in that 80/0 burst, but Surrey’s deeper bowling options meant the momentum didn’t stick. In the chase, Surrey’s batting firepower — the kind suggested by their stronger strike-rate matchups — made 172 feel light once the rate stayed above ten through the middle.