Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, Lancashire lead 2 wins to 1. In the most recent clash, Lancashire set 208/4 and kept Nottinghamshire to 172/9, winning by 36 runs. The defining feature was Nottinghamshire finishing nine down while chasing, which stalled the pursuit. The pattern is narrow but clear: Lancashire have had the upper hand in this matchup recently.

LALancashire 208/4

NONottinghamshire 172/9

2026-05-25 · LAN won by 36 runs

NONottinghamshire 127/6

LALancashire 126/10

2025-07-18 · NOT won by 4 wickets (with 28 balls remaining)

LALancashire 216/3

NONottinghamshire 169/10

2025-05-31 · LAN won by 47 runs

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire are 5th in the T20B Regular Season with 20 points and a 5W-3L record. They are on a three-match winning run, capped by a 74-run win over Leicestershire. Two of those wins were chases, including a four-wicket win with eight balls remaining against Kent.

NONottinghamshire 209/4

LELeicestershire 135/10

2026-06-28 · NOT won by 74 runs

NONottinghamshire 187/6

KEKent 184/7

2026-06-26 · NOT won by 4 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

NONottinghamshire 183/6

DEDerbyshire 173/9

2026-06-07 · Target 184 runs

Lancashire

Lancashire are 11th in the T20B Regular Season with 16 points and a 4W-4L record. They are also on a three-match winning run, and their latest win was a four-run finish against Derbyshire. The streak includes two chases, one sealed with seven balls remaining and another with five balls remaining.

LALancashire 205/10

DEDerbyshire 202/10

2026-07-01 · LAN won by 4 runs

LALancashire 160/5

LELeicestershire 156/7

2026-06-26 · LAN won by 5 wickets (with 7 balls remaining)

LALancashire 130/3

DUDurham 128/2

2026-06-09 · LAN won by 7 wickets (with 5 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Nottinghamshire, with the average at NOT 52% vs LAN 48%. Bookmakers diverge from that lean, pricing it as a dead heat: NOT 50% (1.90) vs LAN 50% (1.90). Key stats favour Nottinghamshire 5-2 overall, driven by their stronger season position and NRR profile. Lancashire’s edge is the recent head-to-head and a better death-overs economy, so the late-innings phase is the swing point.

Munsey sets up one-run heist

George Munsey’s measured 51 off 39 became the difference in a finish that tightened with every ball, as Nottinghamshire edged Lancashire by 1 run. Lancashire looked on course when Liam Livingstone counterpunched and the asking rate stayed manageable, but the chase turned into a scramble late. With the target in sight, Nottinghamshire held their nerve through the final over to close out 181/6 with Lancashire stranded on 180/7.

Lancashire’s death-overs stall

The game swung in the last five overs. Lancashire were 151/4 after 15, needing 31 from 30 with set hitters, but Nottinghamshire’s bowlers squeezed the boundary options and forced risk. The death phase told the story: Lancashire managed only 29/3 at 7.2 an over, a sharp drop from their 9.5-rate middle overs. That slowdown made every dot ball in the 19th and 20th overs feel like a wicket.

Munsey, Patterson-White deliver

Munsey didn’t explode; he constructed, ensuring Nottinghamshire had a defendable platform before the late push. Liam Patterson-White then delivered the key control spell, taking 2 for 24 in 3 overs and breaking Lancashire’s rhythm when the chase was building. Livingstone’s 47 kept Lancashire ahead for long stretches, but once the squeeze began, boundaries dried up and the final run proved unreachable.

Pre-match swing point arrives

The build-up hinted this would be decided late: Nottinghamshire’s overall profile and recent form suggested they’d stay in the contest, while Lancashire’s better death-overs numbers offered them the clearest path to steal it. Instead, the roles flipped. Nottinghamshire’s innings stayed afloat through the middle and finished at 10 an over at the death, while Lancashire’s chase lost momentum exactly when their matchup was meant to be strongest.