Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Leicestershire lead the last three meetings 2-1. In the most recent clash, Nottinghamshire won by 1 wicket with 1 ball remaining after chasing down the target in a last-ball finish. The game turned into a tight chase where NOT had to bat deep to get over the line. Across these three matches, results have swung, with two wins for LEI but margins staying close.

NONottinghamshire 189/9

LELeicestershire 188/2

2025-07-06 · NOT won by 1 wicket (with 1 ball remaining)

LELeicestershire 160/6

NONottinghamshire 156/10

2025-06-19 · LEI won by 4 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

LELeicestershire 161/5

NONottinghamshire 160/6

2024-07-14 · LEI won by 5 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

Leicestershire

Leicestershire are 13th in the T20B Regular Season with 12 points. Their last three games include two wins before a defeat, showing they can respond quickly after setbacks. The clearest signal is the recent loss to Lancashire, where LEI were beaten by 5 wickets with 7 balls remaining.

LELeicestershire 156/7

LALancashire 160/5

2026-06-26 · LAN won by 5 wickets (with 7 balls remaining)

LELeicestershire 147/8

YOYorkshire 135/10

2026-06-07

LELeicestershire 180/6

SUSussex 179/10

2026-06-05 · LEI won by 4 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire are 7th in the T20B Regular Season with 16 points. They come in on a three-match winning run, with each win coming via a chase or a tight finish. The most telling result is the latest win over Kent, where NOT chased successfully to win by 4 wickets with 8 balls remaining.

NONottinghamshire 187/6

KEKent 184/7

2026-06-26 · NOT won by 4 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

NONottinghamshire 183/6

DEDerbyshire 173/9

2026-06-07 · Target 184 runs

NONottinghamshire 143/7

WAWarwickshire 139/10

2026-06-05 · NOT won by 3 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Nottinghamshire, with the average projection at NOT 60% (range 54–68%). Bookmakers agree, pricing NOT at 59% (1.60) vs LEI at 41% (2.30). Key stats lean NOT 5-1 overall, driven by their stronger season position and better run-rate profile. The swing factor is whether LEI’s recent edge in this head-to-head can disrupt NOT’s current winning streak.

Ali’s burst kills the chase

Mohammad Ali turned a big chase into a scramble, striking early and often as Leicestershire’s reply unravelled. Nottinghamshire’s 209/4 had given them room to attack, and Ali made it count, finishing with 3/20 in 3.5 overs as Leicestershire were bowled out for 135 in 17.5 overs to lose by 74 runs. There was a flicker of resistance through Rehan Ahmed, but the required rate and falling wickets kept dragging the hosts back under.

Powerplay wickets set the tone

The match was effectively won in the first six overs of Leicestershire’s innings. Chasing 10.45 an over, they stumbled to 48/4 in the powerplay, losing the freedom to target the middle overs. Even when the scoring steadied, the damage was already done: they reached 75/4 after 10 overs, still needing a surge that never arrived. Nottinghamshire’s bowlers kept their lengths full enough to force risky hits, and the chase’s final phase fizzled to just 11 runs for two wickets.

Munsey anchors, Linde detonates

George Munsey’s 76 off 52 balls gave Nottinghamshire a base that survived the quieter middle, and his stand of 69 with George Linde was the innings’ key bridge. Then Linde flipped the match in a handful of deliveries, blasting 55 off 22 at a strike rate of 250 to blow open the death overs. For Leicestershire, Rehan’s 45 off 23 briefly hinted at a counterpunch, but Ali’s spell ensured it never became a partnership-led chase.

Pre-match edge becomes on-field control

Nottinghamshire came in with the stronger recent run and a profile built around controlling phases, and that’s exactly how the game played out. Their batting didn’t just start fast; it finished faster, with 65 runs in the last four overs, turning a good total into a daunting one. Leicestershire’s recent head-to-head success needed a clean powerplay and a stable chase, but the early collapse meant they were always chasing the game’s tempo rather than the target.