Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, Washington Freedom lead Texas Super Kings 2-1. In the most recent clash last season, TSK won by 43 runs in a low-scoring game where WSF were restricted to 44/4 while chasing 87/2. That match was defined by WSF failing to get close to the target, finishing well short with four wickets down. The broader pattern is mixed: WSF won the two meetings before that, including a seven-wicket win with two balls remaining in a 220+ chase.

TSTexas Super Kings 87/2

WSWashington Freedom 44/4

2025-07-02 · TSK won by 43 runs

WSWashington Freedom 223/3

TSTexas Super Kings 220/6

2025-06-23 · WSF won by 7 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 164/10

WSWashington Freedom 206/5

2024-07-20 · WSF won by 42 runs

Washington Freedom

Washington Freedom are 6th in the MLC regular season with 2 points and a 1W-2L record, currently outside the playoff zone. Their last three games have swung between a 30-run win over MI New York and two losses to Seattle Orcas, including an 88-run defeat most recently. The clearest signal is that latest collapse, where WSF were bowled out for 139 while defending against 227/6.

WSWashington Freedom 139/10

SOSeattle Orcas 227/6

2026-06-26 · SO won by 88 runs

WSWashington Freedom 245/5

MIMI New York 215/6

2026-06-21 · WSF won by 30 runs

WSWashington Freedom 216/10

SOSeattle Orcas 219/5

2026-06-20 · SO won by 5 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

Texas Super Kings

Texas Super Kings are 1st in the MLC regular season with 6 points and a 3W-2L record, currently in the playoff zone. Their recent form is upward, with wins over San Francisco Unicorns and MI New York either side of a loss to MI New York. The most telling result is the latest chase against MI New York, where they won by six wickets with six balls remaining after restricting MINY to 127/9.

TSTexas Super Kings 132/4

MIMI New York 127/9

2026-06-26 · TSK won by 6 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 161/8

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 139/10

2026-06-25 · TSK won by 22 runs

TSTexas Super Kings 158/10

MIMI New York 162/2

2026-06-22 · MINY won by 8 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

Models are split: the ML model narrowly favours WSF, but the other models lean TSK, with the model average at WSF 41% vs TSK 59%. Bookmakers diverge slightly from the model average, pricing WSF at 52% (1.85) vs TSK at 48% (1.95). Key stats overall favour TSK 5-3, driven by their points lead, better NRR, and stronger recent win rate. The match likely turns on whether WSF can arrest their recent heavy defeat trend, or whether TSK’s recent control of games carries through again.

Owen steals it last ball

Mitchell Owen refused to let the chase die, blasting 77 from 35 to drag Washington Freedom over the line by 1 wicket with no balls remaining. The pursuit had swung violently after a serene start, but Owen’s clean striking kept the required rate in reach even as wickets fell around him. Texas Super Kings had set up a defendable 185/4 with a ferocious finish, yet Freedom found just enough at the death to complete a heist.

Hosein rips open the middle

The game pivoted in the middle overs, when TSK’s spin and pace changes turned 65/0 in the powerplay into a stuttering 78/5 through the middle phase. Akeal Hosein was central to that squeeze, finishing with 4/36 and repeatedly forcing Freedom to hit against the turn rather than with it. That collapse should have been decisive, but Freedom’s death-overs scoring rate jumped back to 11.0 an over, with Owen taking on the harder lengths and keeping the chase alive into the final over.

Owen’s counterpunch, Hosein’s threat

Owen was the difference because he scored at a rate that neutralised the wickets: his 220 strike rate meant even quiet overs didn’t kill the chase. Hosein nearly won it on his own, his four strikes creating the window for TSK to squeeze and force mistakes. Donovan Ferreira’s 45 off 20 and Wiaan Mulder’s 43 off 20 powered TSK’s 61-run death phase, but their bowlers couldn’t find the final dot-ball when it mattered most.

Pre-match edge didn’t hold

Coming in, TSK’s stronger recent control and superior net run rate suggested they’d manage the key moments, especially with Freedom carrying a patchy run of results. Instead, the match-up flipped: Freedom’s powerplay batting set the tone at 10.8 an over, while TSK’s slower start (33/1) meant their late surge had to do all the heavy lifting. Once the chase became a boundary-or-bust finish, the contest narrowed to execution under pressure — and Freedom landed the last punch.