Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, Durham lead 2-1. In the most recent clash, Nottinghamshire won by 7 wickets with 8 balls remaining after bowling Durham out for 156. That game was defined by Durham being dismissed inside their 20 overs, leaving a chase that Notts finished with time in hand. The wider pattern still leans Durham, with wins in the two meetings before that.

NONottinghamshire 159/3

DUDurham 156/10

2025-07-11 · NOT won by 7 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

DUDurham 231/5

NONottinghamshire 182/10

2025-07-04 · DUR won by 49 runs

DUDurham 160/6

NONottinghamshire 130/9

2024-07-12 · DUR won by 30 runs

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire are 18th with 0 points in the T20B regular season, sitting at 0W-3L. Their last three games have all been defeats, and the trend has been opponents posting big totals and Notts falling short in reply. The clearest snapshot is the latest loss to Derbyshire, where Nottinghamshire conceded 234/4 and still couldn’t chase it down despite reaching 211/6.

NONottinghamshire 211/6

DEDerbyshire 234/4

2026-05-29 · DER won by 23 runs

NONottinghamshire 172/9

LALancashire 208/4

2026-05-25 · LAN won by 36 runs

NONottinghamshire 167/7

YOYorkshire 169/3

2026-05-22 · YOR won by 7 wickets (with 21 balls remaining)

Durham

Durham are 7th with 8 points in the T20B regular season, with a 2W-1L record. Their last three results show volatility: two wins either side of a heavy defeat. The most telling result is the latest game, where they were bowled out for 93 and lost by 58 runs to Yorkshire.

DUDurham 93/10

YOYorkshire 151/9

2026-05-29 · YOR won by 58 runs

DUDurham 150/4

LELeicestershire 148/8

2026-05-24 · DUR won by 6 wickets (with 24 balls remaining)

DUDurham 203/8

DEDerbyshire 197/8

2026-05-22 · DUR won by 6 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Durham, with Durham projected at 64–73% and 68% on average. Bookmakers also lean Durham but are closer to a coin-flip, pricing Durham at 53% (1.78) vs Nottinghamshire at 47% (2.00). Key stats favour Durham 7-1 overall; the gap in season performance and recent results points their way. Nottinghamshire’s path is to flip the script with a cleaner bowling effort after conceding repeated big totals.

Munsey flips the script

George Munsey set the tone for Nottinghamshire’s upset, absorbing an early wobble and then ripping the chase open with clean, straight hitting. Durham had just enough late resistance to make 157 feel chaseable, but Munsey’s 88 off 52 ensured it never became a scramble. Nottinghamshire got home by six wickets with 16 balls remaining, turning a game that began with Durham on top into a controlled pursuit.

Powerplay damage, lasting cost

The match was effectively decided in Durham’s first six overs. Reduced to 41/4 in the powerplay, they spent the rest of the innings rebuilding rather than dictating, even though the death overs briefly lifted them (44 runs at 10.6 an over). That early collapse meant their best stand was only 43, and 156/8 always looked light once Nottinghamshire blasted 63/2 in their own powerplay.

Linde, then Munsey

George Linde’s 2 for 19 was the control act that stopped Durham stabilising, while Olly Stone’s 2 for 25 kept wickets falling when a platform was needed. Munsey did the heavy lifting in the chase, and the decisive moment came as the 87-run partnership after the powerplay drained the pressure and pushed Durham’s bowlers out of their preferred end-overs plan.

Durham’s edge meets a new pitch

All the pre-match pointers leaned Durham: stronger season numbers, better recent form, and a bowling profile built to squeeze at the death. But this game flipped on the simplest T20 truth: lose the powerplay and you’re defending from behind. Nottinghamshire, criticised for leaking big totals, instead struck early and forced Durham into catch-up mode, then made the chase easy by winning the new-ball phase with the bat.