Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Northamptonshire have won the last three meetings against Warwickshire. In the most recent clash, Northamptonshire set the tone by posting 240/6 and then bowling Warwickshire out for 176 to complete a 64-run win. That match was defined by WAR being dismissed in the chase rather than batting through the innings. The broader pattern is clear: NOR have had WAR’s number across the last three head-to-heads.

WAWarwickshire 176/10

NONorthamptonshire 240/6

2025-07-13 · NOR won by 64 runs

NONorthamptonshire 184/6

WAWarwickshire 174/8

2025-06-11 · NOR won by 10 runs

NONorthamptonshire 197/6

WAWarwickshire 186/6

2024-07-18 · NOR won by 11 runs

Warwickshire

Warwickshire are 17th in the T20B Regular Season with 0 points and a 0W-3L record. Their last three games have all ended in defeat, including a loss where they were bowled out for 141 while chasing 142. The run of results has been shaped by batting collapses rather than close finishes.

WAWarwickshire 141/10

WOWorcestershire 142/4

2026-05-29 · WOR won by 6 wickets (with 7 balls remaining)

WAWarwickshire 189/5

SOSomerset 193/3

2026-05-24 · SOM won by 7 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

WAWarwickshire 74/10

GLGloucestershire 121/10

2026-05-22 · GLO won by 47 runs

Northamptonshire

Northamptonshire are 1st in the T20B Regular Season with 12 points and a 3W-0L record. They have won all of their last three matches, highlighted by a 100-run victory over Worcestershire. The recent wins include both a tight 3-run finish and more comfortable margins, showing they’ve been able to close games in different ways.

NONorthamptonshire 166/3

GLGloucestershire 164/9

2026-05-29 · NOR

NONorthamptonshire 191/10

WOWorcestershire 91/10

2026-05-24 · NOR won by 100 runs

NONorthamptonshire 165/8

GLGlamorgan 162/8

2026-05-22 · NOR won by 3 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Northamptonshire, with the model average at NOR 74% (range 64–82%). Bookmakers also side with NOR, pricing WAR at 40% (2.38) vs NOR at 60% (1.60). Key stats favour NOR 8-0; the unbeaten start and the recent head-to-head sweep are the clearest drivers. Warwickshire’s immediate task is to avoid another batting collapse against a side that has controlled this matchup lately.

Lynn makes 209 look light

Chris Lynn’s 115 off 59 balls was the decisive act, flattening Warwickshire’s 208/7 and carrying Northamptonshire home by six wickets with four balls remaining. Warwickshire had briefly seized momentum through Beau Webster’s 97, but once Lynn settled, the chase felt like it was being played on his terms. A couple of late wickets added a flicker of tension, yet Lynn’s tempo meant Northants always had time in hand.

Powerplay sets the chase

The game was largely won in the first six overs of Northamptonshire’s reply. They surged to 69/1 in the powerplay, immediately outpacing Warwickshire’s 56/2 and forcing the hosts to defend without scoreboard pressure. That early burst let Northants absorb a quieter middle (96/1) without panic, then finish with a 13.2-run death-overs rate. Warwickshire’s better spells, including Usman Tariq’s 1/28, couldn’t claw back the damage done up front.

Webster shines, Lynn dominates

Webster’s 97 (56) gave Warwickshire a platform, and his 81-run partnership with Ed Barnard (41 off 25) looked match-shaping through the middle overs. But Lynn’s innings dwarfed everything else: he turned good balls into boundaries and kept the chase ahead of the curve from the powerplay onwards. Jordan Thompson’s 2/39 offered Warwickshire their best chance of a squeeze, yet Lynn’s control meant the decisive blows had already landed.

Form and matchup hold firm

Pre-match, Northamptonshire’s recent run and head-to-head control suggested they’d handle a high chase better than Warwickshire could defend one. That played out in the key matchup: Warwickshire’s attack couldn’t contain Lynn at the top, and once the required rate stayed manageable, Northants didn’t need risky options. Warwickshire’s batting, while improved, still leaked momentum late—49/4 at the death—leaving just enough on the table.