Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, Derbyshire lead 2-1. In the most recent clash, Derbyshire beat Nottinghamshire by 23 runs after posting 234/4 and holding Nottinghamshire to 211/6. That game was defined by Derbyshire’s bigger total setting a chase Nottinghamshire couldn’t finish. The wider pattern is Derbyshire winning more often in this matchup recently.

DEDerbyshire 234/4

NONottinghamshire 211/6

2026-05-29 · DER won by 23 runs

NONottinghamshire 153/9

DEDerbyshire 199/5

2025-06-13 · DER won by 46 runs

DEDerbyshire 162/9

NONottinghamshire 120/3

2025-06-06 · NOT won by 7 wickets (with 7 balls remaining) (D/L method)

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire are 12th in the T20B Regular Season with 8 points (2W-3L) and a -0.672 NRR. Their recent results show momentum, with consecutive wins that both went down to the wire. The clearest snapshot is the latest win over Warwickshire, sealed with one ball remaining.

NONottinghamshire 143/7

WAWarwickshire 139/10

2026-06-05 · NOT won by 3 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

NONottinghamshire 157/4

DUDurham 156/8

2026-05-31 · NOT won by 6 wickets (with 16 balls remaining)

NONottinghamshire 211/6

DEDerbyshire 234/4

2026-05-29 · DER won by 23 runs

Derbyshire

Derbyshire are 8th in the T20B Regular Season with 8 points (2W-3L) and a +0.856 NRR. Their last three games have swung sharply between a heavy win and tight finishes. The standout result is the 85-run win over Leicestershire, showing their ceiling when the batting clicks.

DEDerbyshire 173/10

ESEssex 179/5

2026-05-31 · ESS won by 5 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

DEDerbyshire 234/4

NONottinghamshire 211/6

2026-05-29 · DER won by 23 runs

DEDerbyshire 230/5

LELeicestershire 145/10

2026-05-27 · DER won by 85 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Derbyshire, with Derbyshire projected at 51–61% and 56% on average. Bookmakers diverge, pricing Nottinghamshire at 58% (1.65) vs Derbyshire at 42% (2.20). Key stats lean Nottinghamshire 4-2 overall, but Derbyshire’s net run rate edge and 2-1 advantage in the last three head-to-heads keep them narrowly in front on the model view. The game likely turns on whether Nottinghamshire’s stronger economy trends can contain Derbyshire’s scoring power that produced 234/4 in the latest meeting.

Ali rips out the chase

Mohammad Ali’s spell was the hinge on which the night swung, slicing through Derbyshire’s top order just as the chase threatened to mirror Nottinghamshire’s brisk start. Chasing 184, Derbyshire were kept at arm’s length despite a late push, finishing 173/9 as Nottinghamshire held their nerve to win by 10 runs.

Powerplay wickets set the tone

The decisive phase was the powerplay: Derbyshire raced at 9.8 an over but lost four wickets in the first six, collapsing to 59/4. That trade-off proved fatal in a chase of this size, because the middle overs then became about repair rather than acceleration (82/5). With too many new batters forced to start against a set plan, even a tidy finish of 32 without further loss at the death couldn’t claw back the required rate.

Munsey-Haynes build, Ali closes

George Munsey’s 54 off 32 and Jack Haynes’ 50 off 36, in a 64-run partnership, gave Nottinghamshire a stable launchpad, while Tom Moores’ 39 off 24 kept the total moving when wickets fell. But the defining impact belonged to Ali, whose 3/25 across four overs repeatedly broke momentum and ensured 183 was a defendable score rather than a par one.

Pre-match lean, match-day twist

Derbyshire came in favoured on paper, with recent head-to-heads and scoring trends suggesting they could outgun Nottinghamshire. Instead, the game followed the other script: Nottinghamshire’s ability to control run rate through wicket-taking. Derbyshire’s expected scoring power never truly arrived because the chase kept resetting; the early strikes meant they couldn’t line up the death overs with set hitters.