Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Somerset lead the last three meetings 2-1. In the most recent clash, Somerset chased down Warwickshire’s total to win by 7 wickets with 10 balls remaining, a controlled chase that ended with time to spare. That result followed another tight Somerset win in the previous meeting, where they got home with 1 ball remaining. The pattern across these three games is close contests, with Somerset winning two of them.

WAWarwickshire 189/5

SOSomerset 193/3

2026-05-24 · SOM won by 7 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

SOSomerset 191/6

WAWarwickshire 190/6

2025-09-06 · SOM won by 4 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

SOSomerset 120/7

WAWarwickshire 107/4

2020-09-04 · WAR won by 4 runs (D/L method)

Somerset

Somerset are 13th in the T20B Regular Season with 8 points and a 2W-3L record. They are on a three-match losing run, including back-to-back defeats against Glamorgan and then a narrow loss to Gloucestershire where they fell short while chasing. The immediate task is to stop the slide and convert competitive totals into wins.

SOSomerset 137/8

GLGloucestershire 138/3

2026-06-05 · GLO won by 7 wickets (with 35 balls remaining)

SOSomerset 202/6

GLGlamorgan 203/6

2026-06-04 · GLA won by 4 wickets (with 0 ball remaining)

SOSomerset 171/9

GLGlamorgan 175/3

2026-05-29 · GLA won by 7 wickets (with 37 balls remaining)

Warwickshire

Warwickshire are 18th in the T20B Regular Season with 0 points and a 0W-5L record. They have lost their last three, including a one-ball defeat to Nottinghamshire after being bowled out in the chase. The pressure is on to find a complete performance and avoid another late-game slip.

WAWarwickshire 139/10

NONottinghamshire 143/7

2026-06-05 · NOT won by 3 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

WAWarwickshire 208/7

NONorthamptonshire 209/4

2026-05-31 · NOR won by 6 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

WAWarwickshire 141/10

WOWorcestershire 142/4

2026-05-29 · WOR won by 6 wickets (with 7 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Somerset, with the average projection at SOM 63% vs WAR 37%. Bookmakers agree, pricing Somerset at 59% (1.60) vs Warwickshire at 41% (2.30). Key stats lean Somerset 5-2, driven by their edge in points, NRR, Elo, and the recent head-to-head record. The swing factors are whether Somerset can arrest their three-game skid and whether Warwickshire can finally turn a winless run into a finished chase or defended total.

Webster flips the script

Beau Webster’s clean striking, and his calm when the finish briefly tightened, was the turning point that Somerset never found an answer for. Chasing 216, Warwickshire stayed in touch early, then surged ahead through the heart of the innings before closing it out to win by six wickets with two balls remaining. Somerset had done plenty right with the bat, but Webster ensured their late momentum never became match control.

Middle overs decide the chase

The game swung decisively in the middle phase, where Warwickshire went 123/0 at 12.3 an over after the powerplay. That stretch, driven by Webster’s power down the ground and Mousley’s pace against anything short, erased the asking rate and forced Somerset into defensive fields far too early. Even when the death overs slowed to 40/2 at 10.9, the damage had already been done; the chase was effectively won before the last four overs began.

Hermann sets, Webster finishes

Jordan Hermann’s 90 off 48, plus a 121-run stand, powered Somerset from 46/2 to 215/4, with 72 coming in the last four overs. Warwickshire’s reply was shaped almost entirely by Webster’s 112 and Mousley’s 71, their 143-run partnership turning a steep chase into a controlled pursuit. Jordan Thompson’s 2/32 helped keep Somerset within reach, but Somerset’s bowlers couldn’t find a middle-overs wicket to break the match open.

Somerset’s strengths don’t land

Pre-match numbers leaned Somerset: stronger Elo, better points rate, and a recent head-to-head edge. But both sides arrived winless in three, and Warwickshire’s batting finally matched its promise by dominating the very phase that models often treat as steadier. Somerset’s near-even NRR edge also hinted at fine margins — and in a 200-plus chase, one extended partnership can override broader form lines.