Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

The Blaze have won all of the last three meetings with Lancashire. In the most recent clash, The Blaze chased down Lancashire’s total and got home by three wickets with three balls remaining, making it a tight finish. The game was decided in the final over with The Blaze still losing wickets during the chase. Across these three matches, the pattern has been consistent: The Blaze keep finding a way to win.

LALancashire W 162/5

TBThe Blaze W 163/7

2026-05-25 · TB-W won by 3 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

TBThe Blaze W 153/5

LALancashire W 150/9

2025-06-19 · TB-W won by 5 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

LALancashire W 169/4

TBThe Blaze W 170/3

2025-05-31 · TB-W won by 7 wickets (with 5 balls remaining)

The Blaze W

The Blaze are 3rd in the T20BW regular season with 16 points and are currently in the playoff zone. Their recent run is 2 wins in the last 3, with one setback against Durham in between. The clearest signal is their latest result: an 11-run win over Warwickshire that kept their season momentum intact.

TBThe Blaze W 151/7

WAWarwickshire W 138/5

2026-06-05 · TB-W won by 11 runs

TBThe Blaze W 153/10

DUDurham W 156/3

2026-05-31 · DUR-W won by 7 wickets (with 5 balls remaining)

TBThe Blaze W 159/6

WAWarwickshire W 158/8

2026-05-27 · TB-W won by 4 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

Lancashire W

Lancashire are 7th in the T20BW regular season with 5 points and are currently outside the playoff zone. They have won 1 of their last 3, with defeats either side of that single win. Their most telling recent result is the loss to Essex, where they fell short in the chase.

LALancashire W 128/8

ESEssex W 132/4

2026-05-31 · ESS-W won by 6 wickets (with 13 balls remaining)

LALancashire W 138/3

SOSomerset W 137/6

2026-05-29 · LAN-W won by 7 wickets (with 27 balls remaining)

LALancashire W 162/5

TBThe Blaze W 163/7

2026-05-25 · TB-W won by 3 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour The Blaze, with an average win probability of 66% (range 55–71%). Bookmakers broadly agree, pricing The Blaze at 57% (1.64) vs Lancashire at 43% (2.12). Key stats lean The Blaze 6-2 overall; the table gap and the clean 3-0 head-to-head run are the main drivers. Lancashire’s better middle and death economy is the clearest counterweight if they can turn it into scoreboard pressure.

Knott snaps the chase

Charli Knott’s burst in the middle overs was the moment the chase never recovered from, turning Lancashire’s fast start into a scramble. The Blaze W defended 135/9 to win by 15 runs, even after Grace Potts’ 5/20 had put them under pressure late in the first innings. Lancashire briefly looked ahead at 56/3 in the powerplay, but once Knott and Georgia Elwiss got into the game, the chase tightened and then unravelled.

Middle overs slam the brakes

The decisive stretch was Lancashire’s middle overs, where the asking rate climbed and wickets kept arriving. After racing at 9.3 an over in the powerplay, they managed only 54/4 across the middle phase (5.4 rpo), losing the ability to cash in on the platform. The Blaze’s bowlers attacked the stumps and forced mistimed hits, leaving too much for the end; Lancashire then limped through the death overs with just 10 runs for three wickets.

Beaumont anchors, Potts threatens

Tammy Beaumont’s 59 off 40 gave The Blaze something to defend on a tricky night for batters, especially as wickets fell around her and the best stand was only 25. Potts was outstanding, her five-for repeatedly dragging the total back. But Knott’s 4/9 flipped the chase, and Elwiss’ 3/12 finished the job, snuffing out Eleanor Threlkeld’s 49 and ensuring Lancashire’s late resistance never became a surge.

Pre-match edge, proven late

The Blaze came in with the stronger overall record and a clear head-to-head advantage, but this wasn’t a cruise—Potts made sure of that. What matched expectations was how The Blaze controlled the key moments: they absorbed a tough death-overs squeeze with the bat, then used their better powerplay discipline with the ball to keep Lancashire from running away early. Once the chase moved into a more tactical middle phase, The Blaze’s bowlers created scoreboard pressure and Lancashire couldn’t reset.