Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Across the last three meetings, TSK lead 2-1. The most recent meeting was earlier this month, and LAKR won by 6 wickets with 8 balls remaining. It was a tight chase where LAKR got home with time in hand after TSK posted 173/5. The wider pattern is mixed: TSK dominated the two meetings last season, but LAKR took the latest one.

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 175/4

TSTexas Super Kings 173/5

2026-07-04 · LAKR won by 6 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 196/8

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 144/7

2025-06-25 · TSK won by 52 runs

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 124/10

TSTexas Super Kings 181/4

2025-06-15 · TSK won by 57 runs

Texas Super Kings

TSK are 6th in the MLC regular season with 6 points (3W-6L, NRR -0.130), currently outside the playoff zone. Their last three games have all been losses, and the most telling was the 3-wicket defeat to Washington Freedom where they couldn’t defend and lost with 2 balls remaining.

TSTexas Super Kings 165/10

WSWashington Freedom 166/7

2026-07-11 · WSF won by 3 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 112/9

SOSeattle Orcas 121/9

2026-07-05 · SO won by 9 runs

TSTexas Super Kings 173/5

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 175/4

2026-07-04 · LAKR won by 6 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

Los Angeles Knight Riders

LAKR are 3rd in the MLC regular season with 10 points (5W-4L, NRR +0.229), currently in the playoff zone. They have won 2 of their last 3, and their latest win was an 11-run result over San Francisco Unicorns after scoring 184/7 and defending it.

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 184/7

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 173/10

2026-07-11 · LAKR won by 11 runs

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 192/8

WSWashington Freedom 174/8

2026-07-10 · LAKR won by 18 runs

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 165/6

MIMI New York 168/4

2026-07-05 · MINY won by 6 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour LAKR, with the model average at LAKR 55% (range 52–58%). Bookmakers agree, pricing LAKR at 58% (1.64) vs TSK at 42% (2.20). Key stats are dead level overall at 4-4, so this leans on current momentum rather than a one-sided profile. LAKR’s recent results edge and TSK’s 0% win rate across the last three matches are the clearest swing factors.

Holder’s spell flips the script

Jason Holder turned a promising Texas Super Kings start into a chase LAKR could control, and Colin Munro then made sure it stayed that way. LAKR won by 6 wickets with five balls remaining, but the game’s hinge came earlier: TSK’s powerplay burst gave them momentum, only for Holder’s strikes to keep the total within reach and leave the finishers with too much to do.

Middle-overs squeeze tells

TSK’s 66/3 powerplay (10.7 rpo) looked like the platform for 190, but the middle overs bled their innings. They managed 77/3 in the middle phase at 7.7 an over, never finding a partnership beyond 38, and the death overs didn’t rescue them either (28/3). Holder’s 3/33 was the clearest handbrake, forcing risk against the bigger boundary hitters and turning boundary balls into dot-ball pressure.

Munro, Tromp close it out

Munro’s 62 off 36 set the tempo and, alongside Andre Fletcher, his 85-run stand removed most of the scoreboard tension. When TSK finally prised out wickets in the middle, Matthew Tromp’s 58 off 28 turned it into a sprint LAKR were always winning, powering a 42/1 death phase at 13.3 an over. For TSK, Shubham Ranjane’s 51 off 34 was the lone innings that consistently found gaps, but it wasn’t enough support around him.

Form edge becomes composure

Pre-match, LAKR’s recent momentum suggested they’d handle key moments better, and that’s exactly how the chase played out. While TSK’s innings lurched after the powerplay, LAKR were calm at 54/0 in theirs, then absorbed a brief wobble in the middle without letting the rate climb out of control. The difference was decision-making under pressure: LAKR kept wickets in hand for a late surge rather than chasing the game too early.