Toss & Conditions

Across all women’s T20 matches on record at Bellerive Oval, the average first-innings total is 143.1, a touch above the overall baseline of 139.7. Chasing sides have won 52% of the time here (from 40 matches), which points to no meaningful toss advantage either way. The forecast at the start is 12.78°C with 86.0% humidity, 71.0% cloud cover, wind at 4.05 km/h, and 0.05 mm precipitation; in very humid women’s T20s (>80%), first-innings totals have averaged 134.7, while in cloudy conditions (51–80%) they’ve averaged 139.9. With those numbers in mind, a first-innings target in the mid-140s fits the ground’s broader history, but recent outcomes in similar humidity bands have often landed lower.

Head-to-Head

The last three meetings between these teams have gone 2–1 in favour of HH-W. In the most recent clash, in November 2025, Hobart Hurricanes W won by six wickets with six balls remaining, completing the chase with an over to spare. Earlier in November 2024, Melbourne Renegades W took the points by 22 runs, defending their total successfully. Back in November 2023, HH-W produced the most emphatic result of the set, winning by 93 runs. Recent history has swung between a tight chase and two clear run-margin wins, rather than settling into a single pattern.

HHHobart Hurricanes W 106/4

MRMelbourne Renegades W 155/10

2025-11-20 · HH-W won by 6 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

HHHobart Hurricanes W 128/8

MRMelbourne Renegades W 150/5

2024-11-21 · MR-W won by 22 runs

HHHobart Hurricanes W 212/3

MRMelbourne Renegades W 119/10

2023-11-23 · HH-W won by 93 runs

Hobart Hurricanes W

HH-W are #8 in the WBBL regular season with 0 points, a 0W-2L record, and an NRR of -2.625. Their latest match was a heavy 87-run loss to Sydney Sixers W, a result that left no room for a late recovery. Before that, they went down by 18 runs against Melbourne Stars W, another game where they couldn’t close the gap. The recent sequence has put pressure on them to turn competitiveness into points quickly.

HHHobart Hurricanes W 109/10

SSSydney Sixers W 196/8

2026-11-01 · SS-W won by 87 runs

HHHobart Hurricanes W 174/8

MSMelbourne Stars W 192/4

2026-10-29 · MS-W won by 18 runs

HHHobart Hurricanes W 141/2

PSPerth Scorchers W 137/5

2025-12-13 · HH-W won by 8 wickets (with 30 balls remaining)

Melbourne Renegades W

MR-W come in off a nine-wicket defeat to Perth Scorchers W, with the chase finished with 39 balls remaining. That followed a six-wicket loss to Sydney Thunder W, where the opposition got home with 18 balls to spare. In the table it leaves Melbourne Renegades W at #7 on 0 points, with a 0W-2L record and an NRR of -2.265. The early-season task is straightforward: tighten games that have been getting away from them before the final overs.

MRMelbourne Renegades W 136/6

PSPerth Scorchers W 138/1

2026-10-31 · PS-W won by 9 wickets (with 39 balls remaining)

MRMelbourne Renegades W 138/9

STSydney Thunder W 140/4

2026-10-29 · ST-W won by 6 wickets (with 18 balls remaining)

MRMelbourne Renegades W 134/4

SSSydney Sixers W 130/9

2025-12-04 · MR-W won by 6 wickets (with 22 balls remaining)

Expected Lineups

HH-W MR-W

HH-W are still waiting on the official XI, but the likely shape from the squad leans on a top order featuring Lizelle Lee and Danni Wyatt-Hodge. The biggest match-defining names by impact in this group are Heather Graham, Nicola Carey and Lee, giving the Hurricanes a clear spine across bowling and all-round options. Kate Pelle is the wicketkeeper in the projected side, with the final call still to come closer to the start.

Best players

CareeriCareer impact per match: runs + wickets + strike-rate, across the player's whole record. Higher is better.FormiThe same impact score over the player's last 5 matches — current form rather than career. Higher is better.

Heather Graham

Bowler

31.626.4

Nicola Carey

Allrounder

30.221.8

Lizelle Lee

Batsman

29.929.5

For MR-W, the expected XI is built around high-impact all-rounders, with Hayley Matthews and Deandra Dottin headlining the projected middle. Georgia Wareham is the standout bowling presence by impact in the group, and the balance is rounded out by Sophie Molineux alongside a batting unit that includes Courtney Webb and Tess Flintoff. Nicole Faltum is the projected wicketkeeper, with the confirmed team still pending.

Best players

CareeriCareer impact per match: runs + wickets + strike-rate, across the player's whole record. Higher is better.FormiThe same impact score over the player's last 5 matches — current form rather than career. Higher is better.

Hayley Matthews

Allrounder

43.135.8

Georgia Wareham

Bowler

35.343.4

Deandra Dottin

Allrounder

31.728.7

Key Stats

Prediction

All four models lean the same way, with HH-W the consensus pick and a model-average win chance of 56%. Bookmakers also have HH-W favoured at 58% (odds 1.65) versus MR-W at 42% (odds 2.25), and the model vs market edge is 1.5 percentage points in favour of MR-W (model average 56% vs market 58% for HH-W). The Key Stats card has it: HH-W 2 - 4 MR-W. The game’s tension sits in that split—models backing the Hurricanes while the broader key-stats picture tilts the other way—so execution from the highest-impact players is likely to decide which view holds up.