T20I ·1st T20I
Finished
New Zealand
91/10
(14.3 ov)
South Africa
93/3
(16.4 ov)
South Africa won by 7 wickets (with 20 balls remaining)
1
·lb2···
2 runs
2
·1·W··
1 runs
3
wd11··21
6 runs
4
·24·1·
7 runs
5
··wd16W·
8 runs
6
··b6lb1
7 runs
7
··4···
4 runs
8
11····
2 runs
9
141·21
9 runs
10
W2····
2 runs
11
1·1112
6 runs
12
1·····
1 runs
13
111112
7 runs
14
····1·
1 runs
15
·1··1·
2 runs
16
1··4wd1·
7 runs
17
11nb226
12 runs
Batting
RB4s6sSR
T. Zorzi
2 8 0 0 25
C. Esterhuizen
46 48 2 2 95.8
Bowling
OMRWEcon
K. Jamieson
3.4 11 28 1 7.6
M. Santner
4 20 8 1 2
MATCH STATS NZ SA
PP 36/5 (6) 40/2 (6.7)
Middle 55/5 (6.5) 41/1 (4.1)
Death — 12/0 (14.4)
4s 7 4
6s 2 3
Dots 37% 49%
Extras 6 13
Best P'ship 26(7) 38(4)
Runs
NZSA
30609012015005101520
🗓
Date and time 15/03/2026 · 06:15
🏆
Competition Twenty20 International · 1st T20I
🪙
Toss New Zealand won the toss, elected to batting

Match Prediction

New Zealand face South Africa in a key contest between two top-performing sides. New Zealand hold a 6–4 record with a net run rate of +0.665, while South Africa lead the table with 8–2 and a +1.307 NRR. The model gives a near-even prediction: NZ 49% vs SA 51%. Bookmakers rate NZ higher at 65% (odds 1.497).

Toss & Conditions

🪙 New Zealand won toss, elected batting
🏟 Bay Oval, Mount Maunganu
🌡 18°C💧 80%☁️ 58%💨 5 km/h

Head-to-Head

In the last three head-to-head matches, New Zealand won twice and South Africa once.

South Africa 169/8
New Zealand 173/1
2026-03-04
New Zealand 175/7
South Africa 178/3
2026-02-14
New Zealand 180/5
South Africa 177/6
2025-07-26

New Zealand

NRR +0.665LWL→

New Zealand have 6 wins and 4 losses with a net run rate of +0.665 in the current tournament.

New Zealand 159/10
India 255/5
2026-03-08 · IND won by 96 runs
New Zealand 173/1
South Africa 169/8
2026-03-04 · NZ won by 9 wickets (with 43 balls remaining)
New Zealand 159/7
England 161/6
2026-02-27 · ENG won by 4 wickets (with 3 balls remaining)

South Africa

NRR +1.307WWL→

South Africa lead with 8 wins and 2 losses, maintaining a net run rate of +1.307.

South Africa 169/8
New Zealand 173/1
2026-03-04 · NZ won by 9 wickets (with 43 balls remaining)
South Africa 154/5
Zimbabwe 153/7
2026-03-01 · SA won by 5 wickets (with 13 balls remaining)
South Africa 177/1
West Indies 176/8
2026-02-26 · SA won by 9 wickets (with 23 balls remaining)

Playing XI

NZ
Mitchell SantnerC
Tom LathamWK
Devon Conway
Tim Robinson
Nick Kelly
Bevon Jacobs
James Neesham
Cole McConchie
Zakary Foulkes
Kyle Jamieson
Ben Sears
SA
Keshav MaharajC
Connor EsterhuizenWK
Jordan Hermann
Tony de Zorzi
Rubin Hermann
Jason Smith
Dian Forrester
George Linde
Gerald Coetzee
Nqobani Mokoena
Ottneil Baartman

News & Facts

  • New Zealand record this season: 6 wins, 4 losses, NRR +0.665.
  • South Africa record this season: 8 wins, 2 losses, NRR +1.307.
  • Model probability: NZ 49%, SA 51%.
  • Bookmaker odds: NZ 65% implied probability (1.497).
  • Elo rating difference: SA +35.9 points.

Key Stats

NZSA
NRR +0.67 +1.31
Total score 0 1

Verdict

Model consensus is nearly even at NZ 49% vs SA 51%. South Africa hold advantages in Elo rating (+35.9) and NRR (+0.64). Despite bookmaker preference for NZ, data slightly favors South Africa.

NZSA
59% ML 41%
44% AI 1 56%
42% AI 2 58%
50% Math 50%
65% Books 35%
Playing XI
Mitchell Santner
Mitchell SantnerC Allrounder
Tom Latham
Tom LathamWK Wicketkeeper
Nick Kelly
Nick Kelly Top Order Batter
James Neesham
James Neesham Batting Allrounder
Tim Robinson
Tim Robinson Batsman
Bevon Jacobs
Bevon Jacobs Batsman
Cole McConchie
Cole McConchie Allrounder
Zakary Foulkes
Zakary Foulkes Bowler
Kyle Jamieson
Kyle Jamieson Bowler
Ben Sears
Ben Sears Bowler
Devon Conway
Devon Conway Wicketkeeper
Playing XI
Keshav Maharaj
Keshav MaharajC Bowler
Connor Esterhuizen
Connor EsterhuizenWK Wicketkeeper
Jordan Hermann
Jordan Hermann Batsman
Tony de Zorzi
Tony de Zorzi Batsman
Jason Smith
Jason Smith Batsman
Dian Forrester
Dian Forrester Batsman
Nqobani Mokoena
Nqobani Mokoena Batsman
George Linde
George Linde Allrounder
Gerald Coetzee
Gerald Coetzee Allrounder
Ottneil Baartman
Ottneil Baartman Bowler
Rubin Hermann
Rubin Hermann Wicketkeeper
6Wins
Losses4
60%
40%
LWWWLWWLWL→
New Zealand 159/10
India 255/5
08-03-2026 · WCT20
South Africa 169/8
New Zealand 173/1
04-03-2026 · WCT20
England 161/6
New Zealand 159/7
27-02-2026 · WCT20
New Zealand 168/7
Sri Lanka 107/8
25-02-2026 · WCT20
Canada 173/4
New Zealand 176/2
17-02-2026 · WCT20
New Zealand 175/7
South Africa 178/3
14-02-2026 · WCT20
New Zealand 175/0
United Arab Emirates 173/6
10-02-2026 · WCT20
Afghanistan 182/6
New Zealand 183/5
08-02-2026 · WCT20
New Zealand 208/7
United States of America 201/8
05-02-2026 · WM
India 271/5
New Zealand 225/10
31-01-2026 · T20I
Last 8 matches
5
3
South Africa 169/8
New Zealand 173/1
04-03-2026 · WCT20
New Zealand 175/7
South Africa 178/3
14-02-2026 · WCT20
New Zealand 180/5
South Africa 177/6
26-07-2025 · TS
New Zealand 135/3
South Africa 134/8
22-07-2025 · TS
South Africa 152/10
New Zealand 173/5
16-07-2025 · TS
New Zealand 308/4
South Africa 304/6
10-02-2025 · TS
New Zealand 96/10
South Africa 100/1
17-10-2022 · WM
New Zealand 168/8
South Africa 170/6
24-03-2014 · WCT20
7Wins
Losses3
70%
30%
LLWWWWWWWL→
South Africa 169/8
New Zealand 173/1
04-03-2026 · WCT20
Zimbabwe 153/7
South Africa 154/5
01-03-2026 · WCT20
West Indies 176/8
South Africa 177/1
26-02-2026 · WCT20
India 111/10
South Africa 187/7
22-02-2026 · WCT20
South Africa 123/4
United Arab Emirates 122/6
18-02-2026 · WCT20
New Zealand 175/7
South Africa 178/3
14-02-2026 · WCT20
Afghanistan 187/10
South Africa 187/6
11-02-2026 · WCT20
Canada 156/8
South Africa 213/4
09-02-2026 · WCT20
India 240/4
South Africa 210/6
04-02-2026 · WM
South Africa 118/6
West Indies 114/3
31-01-2026 · T20I