Laura HarrisL. Harris •
Heather KnightH. Knight
Sarah GlennS. Glenn •
Lucy HamiltonL. HamiltonSydney Thunder W and Brisbane Heat W meet in the WBBL regular season at Drummoyne Oval in Sydney. ST-W start the round sitting #2 with 2 points and a 1W-0L record, while BH-W are #6 with 0 points at 0W-1L. Thunder’s net run rate is +1.335, compared to Heat’s -0.150. The match begins with Brisbane Heat W having won the toss and electing to bat. Both sides have named their XIs for the game.
Toss & Conditions
Across all women’s T20 matches on record at Drummoyne Oval, the average first-innings total is 124.9, well below the overall women’s T20 baseline of 139.7. Chasing sides have won 54% of the time here, which points to no meaningful toss advantage either way. With humidity forecast at 74.0%, first-innings totals in comparable humid conditions at this venue have averaged 123.3, so a score around the mid-120s has often been competitive in similar bands. Cloud cover is forecast at 61.25%, and women’s T20 matches played under similarly cloudy skies have averaged 139.9 across the wider record, so teams can’t bank on conditions alone to keep totals down.
Head-to-Head
Across the last three meetings between these sides, ST-W have won two and BH-W have won one. The most recent clash was in December 2025, when Sydney Thunder W batted first and won by 23 runs. That game was decided by Thunder defending their total successfully rather than a chase going the distance. Earlier in November 2025, Thunder again set the tone with a 41-run win after batting first. The one Heat success in this run came earlier, in November 2024, when BH-W chased to a nine-wicket win with 28 balls remaining, underlining that this matchup has swung depending on who controls the innings.
Sydney Thunder W
Sydney Thunder W are #2 on 2 points in the WBBL regular season, with a 1W-0L record and a net run rate of +1.335. Most recently, they chased down Melbourne Renegades W for a six-wicket win with 18 balls remaining, showing they could finish a pursuit with time in hand. Their recent run also includes a nine-wicket win over Melbourne Stars W via the DLS method, again with 17 balls remaining. With Play Offs listed as their current status, the early signs are of a side converting positions into points rather than letting games drift.
Brisbane Heat W
Brisbane Heat W come into this match off a tight loss to Sydney Sixers W, beaten by four wickets with no ball remaining after batting first. That result leaves them #6 with 0 points, and their record stands at 0W-1L with a net run rate of -0.150. Their recent results also include a seven-wicket defeat to Perth Scorchers W with four balls remaining, another game where their total didn’t hold up. The immediate task is to turn competitive first-innings work into a result, because the points column hasn’t moved yet.
Playing XI
Sydney Thunder W have named an XI led by Heather Knight, with Nadine de Klerk and Hannah Darlington also among the top impact names in the side. The one change from their previous match is Jemma Barsby coming in, with Hasrat Gill dropping out. The rest of the group stays intact, keeping the same core while adding Barsby’s bowling option.
Brisbane Heat W bring in two batters compared to their last outing, with Yastika Bhatia and Ayaka Kato-Stafford added to the XI. Lucinda Bourke and Ayaka Stafford make way, while the spine of the side remains built around Orla Prendergast, Grace Harris and Charli Knott. Georgia Redmayne is the designated wicketkeeper in the confirmed team.
Key Stats
Prediction
Current prediction, after the playing XI and toss
All four models side with ST-W, with the model-average win chance set at 70% (the individual calls range from 66% to 78%). The bookmakers also lean the same way: ST-W are priced at 68% (odds 1.40) versus BH-W at 32% (odds 2.85). That leaves a 2.0 percentage-point gap in favour of ST-W (model average 70% vs market 68% for ST-W). The Key Stats card has it ST-W 5 - 2 BH-W, and the biggest separators in the raw comparison are points, net run rate and Elo. With Heat choosing to bat, the story is whether they can post a total that stands up at a venue where first-innings scores have often been modest, or whether Thunder’s overall edge converts into another controlled result.
Superseded: preliminary prediction, before the XI and toss
Preliminary prediction — calculated before the playing XI and toss were known. It is recalculated 5–30 minutes before the start, once the lineups and toss are confirmed.
All four models line up on ST-W as the favourite, with the model-average win probability at 67% (and individual model calls ranging from 64% to 76%). The bookmaker also has ST-W favoured at 60% (odds 1.57) versus BH-W at 40% (odds 2.35). That creates a 7.2 percentage-point gap in favour of ST-W (model average 67% vs market 60% for ST-W). On the key-stats card the overall score reads ST-W 5 - 2 BH-W, with the biggest numerical edges sitting with Thunder on points, NRR and Elo. If this follows the numbers, it’s likely to be decided by whether Thunder’s stronger recent profile translates into another controlled performance, or whether Heat’s higher “Key Players” rating becomes the lever that flips the script.
Form — last 10 matches
5W5L50%
MRMelbourne Renegades W
138/9
STSydney Thunder W
140/4
MSMelbourne Stars W
66/6
STSydney Thunder W
79/1
STSydney Thunder W
153/7
BHBrisbane Heat W
130/6
SSSydney Sixers W
176/4
STSydney Thunder W
174/6
STSydney Thunder W
64/10
MRMelbourne Renegades W
68/2
BHBrisbane Heat W
159/10
STSydney Thunder W
200/6
STSydney Thunder W
154/1
PSPerth Scorchers W
150/7
STSydney Thunder W
118/8
SSSydney Sixers W
142/9
MRMelbourne Renegades W
151/6
STSydney Thunder W
148/7
HHHobart Hurricanes W
182/4
STSydney Thunder W
181/8
Head-to-head — last 10
ST5–5BHSTSydney Thunder W
153/7
BHBrisbane Heat W
130/6
BHBrisbane Heat W
159/10
STSydney Thunder W
200/6
BHBrisbane Heat W
134/1
STSydney Thunder W
133/7
STSydney Thunder W
170/5
BHBrisbane Heat W
151/10
BHBrisbane Heat W
169/8
STSydney Thunder W
125/9
BHBrisbane Heat W
160/8
STSydney Thunder W
138/9
STSydney Thunder W
204/4
BHBrisbane Heat W
196/5
STSydney Thunder W
149/9
BHBrisbane Heat W
163/3
BHBrisbane Heat W
120/5
STSydney Thunder W
139/7
BHBrisbane Heat W
153/9
STSydney Thunder W
162/5
Form — last 10 matches
0W10L0%BHBrisbane Heat W
154/5
SSSydney Sixers W
157/6
PSPerth Scorchers W
165/3
BHBrisbane Heat W
164/7
STSydney Thunder W
153/7
BHBrisbane Heat W
130/6
ASAdelaide Strikers W
151/4
BHBrisbane Heat W
149/9
ASAdelaide Strikers W
170/4
BHBrisbane Heat W
169/5
BHBrisbane Heat W
153/9
MSMelbourne Stars W
171/8
BHBrisbane Heat W
159/10
STSydney Thunder W
200/6
BHBrisbane Heat W
108/9
HHHobart Hurricanes W
114/1
BHBrisbane Heat W
149/10
PSPerth Scorchers W
172/3
BHBrisbane Heat W
133/10
MRMelbourne Renegades W
66/3