Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

MIL-W have won the last three meetings against BP-W (3-0). In the most recent clash, MIL-W won by 22 runs after posting 174/5 and keeping BP-W to 152/6. The game was defined by BP-W falling short in the chase despite batting through the innings. Across the last three head-to-heads, MIL-W have been consistently on top.

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 152/6

MIMI London W 174/5

2025-08-12 · Oval Invincibles W won by 22 runs

MIMI London W 150/5

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 105/10

2024-07-23 · Oval Invincibles W won by 45 runs

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 132/6

MIMI London W 142/5

2023-08-13 · Oval Invincibles W won by 10 runs

Birmingham Phoenix W

BP-W are 8th in the THW regular season on 6 points with a 1W-5L record. Their recent run has been a slide, with three straight defeats and no momentum to lean on. The clearest snapshot is the loss to Sunrisers Leeds W, where BP-W made 107/9 and were beaten by 9 wickets with 31 balls remaining.

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 108/8

LSLondon Spirit W 140/4

2026-08-09 · LS-W won by 32 runs

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 107/9

SLSunrisers Leeds W 111/1

2026-08-07 · Sunrisers Leeds W won by 9 wickets (with 31 balls remaining)

BPBirmingham Phoenix W 122/7

TRTrent Rockets W 124/4

2026-08-05 · TR-W won by 6 wickets (with 16 balls remaining)

MI London W

MIL-W are 7th in the THW regular season on 6 points with a 1W-5L record. Their last three games show a team living on fine margins, with one 3-run win sandwiched between two defeats. The most telling result is the 9-wicket loss to Trent Rockets W, where MIL-W’s 121/5 was chased with 18 balls remaining.

MIMI London W 121/5

TRTrent Rockets W 125/1

2026-08-08 · TR-W won by 9 wickets (with 18 balls remaining)

MIMI London W 122/9

LSLondon Spirit W 119/8

2026-08-06 · MIL-W won by 3 runs

MIMI London W 92/10

MSManchester Super Giants W 95/4

2026-08-02 · Manchester Super Giants won by 6 wickets (with 28 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

All four models favour MIL-W, with the average projection at 58% for MIL-W. Bookmakers also lean MIL-W, pricing MIL-W at 52% (1.85) vs BP-W at 48% (1.95). Key stats favour MIL-W 5-0 overall, driven by the head-to-head sweep and the edge on NRR and Elo. The match hinges on whether BP-W can halt the three-game H2H skid and avoid another chase that runs out of overs.

Perry breaks the chase open

Ellyse Perry took control just as the chase threatened to bog down, and Birmingham Phoenix W rode her 63 off 39 to beat MI London W by five wickets with six balls remaining. With the asking rate hovering and MI London W’s spinners tightening, Perry’s clean hitting and sharp running shifted the mood, and Phoenix stayed composed even after a couple of early dents.

Middle-overs squeeze undone

The game swung in the middle phase of the chase. Phoenix were 35/2 in the powerplay, then Perry and Fatima Sana stitched a decisive 66-run partnership that turned a tense pursuit into a manageable finish. MI London W had done the hard part by dragging Phoenix to 68/4 across the middle overs, but once that stand settled, the required rate stopped climbing and the last 20 balls became a matter of keeping wickets in hand rather than chasing boundaries.

Perry, Sana and Gordon stand out

Perry’s innings was the difference: she attacked the loose balls, rotated strike to blunt the squeeze, and kept Phoenix ahead of the rate. Sana’s 36 off 32 was the perfect foil, absorbing pressure early before cashing in once the field spread. For MI London W, Kirstie Gordon’s 2 for 20 kept the contest alive through the middle, but Henry’s effort with the bat needed a stronger platform around it.

Pre-match edges don’t cash in

MI London W came in with the head-to-head momentum and the numbers pointing their way, but this match was decided by execution in the key moments. Their 120/6 was built on Chinelle Henry’s 42 and a 56-run stand with Hollie Armitage, yet the powerplay crawl (24/1) left them without enough cushion when Phoenix found one big innings. In a short chase, one batter batting deep can erase form lines and pre-game projections quickly.