Toss & Conditions

A grippy surface was described as being exploited by seamers, with a low-scoring match where both sides were bowled out or restricted. The chase was shaped by early wickets and thrifty middle-overs bowling, indicating conditions that rewarded control rather than free scoring.

Head-to-Head

The last two meetings are split 1-1 between Hampshire and Nottinghamshire. In the most recent meeting, Hampshire won a tight finish by 2 runs after being chased down to the final margin. The game was defined by how little separated the sides, with the result decided by a single small swing late in the chase. Across these two matches, the pattern is mixed rather than one-sided.

NONottinghamshire 123/10

HAHampshire 125/9

2021-08-25 · HAM won by 2 runs

HAHampshire 146/10

NONottinghamshire 169/7

2017-09-02 · NOT won by 23 runs

Hampshire

Hampshire are 9W-4L with a net run rate of +0.587. Their last three results read as two wins and one loss, ending with a 75-run win over Essex. That latest performance was a clear margin win rather than a last-over escape.

HAHampshire 211/3

ESEssex 136/9

2026-07-15 · HAM won by 75 runs

HAHampshire 190/6

SUSussex 186/5

2026-07-12 · HAM won by 4 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

HAHampshire 130/10

ESEssex 134/3

2026-07-10 · ESS won by 7 wickets (with 24 balls remaining)

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire are 9W-4L with a net run rate of +0.114. Their last three results are two wins and one loss, and their most recent win was a 7-run result against Surrey. That points to a tighter, lower-margin finish in their latest outing.

NONottinghamshire 163/6

SUSurrey 156/7

2026-07-15 · NOT won by 7 runs

NONottinghamshire 175/10

YOYorkshire 193/10

2026-07-12 · YOR won by 18 runs

NONottinghamshire 149/4

LELeicestershire 143/7

2026-07-10 · NOT won by 6 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

Models are split but lean Hampshire on average at 52%, with three of the four model views favouring HAM while the Math model favours NOT. Bookmakers side more clearly with Hampshire, pricing HAM at 57% (1.65) vs NOT at 43% (2.15). Key-stats comparison edges Hampshire 3-2 overall, driven by net run rate and middle/death-overs economy advantages. With recent form equal over the last three, the call comes down to whether Hampshire’s margin profile outweighs Nottinghamshire’s small Elo and powerplay-economy edge.

Fuller slams the door shut

James Fuller turned a tense chase into a scramble, striking through the back end as Nottinghamshire were bowled out for 160 with a ball left, handing Hampshire a 27-run win. After Joe Clarke had kept the asking rate in sight, Fuller’s late burst ensured the required rate never came back down once wickets started to tumble, and the innings ended in a rush of miscued hits and hurried singles.

Death overs: Hampshire’s squeeze

The match was decided in the final phase. Hampshire added 46 runs in the last four overs at 11.5 an over, turning a good base into a demanding 188. Nottinghamshire, by contrast, managed only 29 runs for six wickets at the death (7.2 an over). That contrast meant Clarke and Jack Haynes’ work through the middle couldn’t cash out; once the chase entered the last five overs, boundaries dried up and the set batters were forced into low-percentage shots.

Weatherley, Vince, then Fuller

Joe Weatherley’s 88 off 58 was the innings that gave Hampshire control, built around a 125-run partnership with James Vince (59 off 43) that blunted Nottinghamshire’s early plans. Vince kept the tempo honest, and Weatherley’s acceleration ensured Hampshire had a launchpad for the late surge. In the chase, Clarke’s 64 off 43 briefly made it a contest, but Fuller’s four-wicket spell, backed by disciplined support, turned pressure into collapse.

Pre-match edges played out

The pre-game lean towards Hampshire was built around stronger margin indicators and a bowling profile expected to hold up late, and that’s exactly where the contest swung. Nottinghamshire’s slightly sharper powerplay numbers didn’t materialise with the bat as they crawled to 37 for 1 in the first six, leaving too much to do. Even when the 85-run Haynes-Clarke stand revived them, Hampshire’s ability to close innings—both with bat and ball—proved the separator.